Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury is set to present the national budget for 2026-27 fiscal year in Jatiya Sangsad at 3pm on Thursday. This marks the first budget of the government led by Prime Minister Tarique Rahman and the first for current finance minister.
The proposed budget, which will be the 55th national budget of Bangladesh, is expected to have an overall size of Tk9.38 lakh crore.
The government has set a revenue collection target of Tk6.95 lakh crore, leaving a projected deficit of Tk2.43 lakh crore. For the upcoming 2026-27 fiscal year, the government aims for a GDP growth rate of 6.5 per cent, while the inflation target is expected to be set at 7.5 per cent.
While the Sumerians first introduced calendars to the world, modern global economics now features over 80 different types of calendars, including various fiscal years.
Bangladesh has consistently followed a July to June fiscal cycle since British and Pakistan eras. This timeframe is primarily determined by reviewing a nation’s crop production, political processes, and economic activities in both public and private sectors.
As an agrarian economy, July start is particularly significant because it coincides with the monsoon season when crops are in the fields, with harvests expected a few months later.
In some regions, harvests are already completed by this time, making the middle of the year an ideal period to strategise agricultural budget allocations.
Politically, July start provides a strategic buffer. If a new government assumes power in January or February, the July fiscal start ensures they have sufficient time to prepare a budget that reflects the hopes and aspirations of the people.
Beyond internal factors, aligning the fiscal year with Western nations and the United Kingdom simplifies debt accounting. Notably, the World Bank’s fiscal year begins in July; maintaining the same cycle is advantageous for developing nations.
Historically, Pakistan once shifted its start month to April but eventually reverted to July to align with World Bank loan requirements.
However, the current cycle faces criticism from some economists. They argue that because June marks the start of the monsoon and potential flooding in Bangladesh, it creates inconsistencies in the allocation and utilisation of funds at the end of one fiscal year and the start of the next. Consequently, some have suggested that Bangladesh should follow India’s model and begin the fiscal year in April.
Another group of analysts contends that while public works programmes are weather-dependent, other economic activities are not. They argue that seasonal changes are far less responsible for budget execution issues than the lack of proper measures in fund allocation.
These experts believe that without infrastructural changes in governance, simply changing the fiscal calendar would be fruitless.
Any change to the fiscal year would require a formal amendment to Article 102(1) of the Constitution. Despite the ongoing debates, relevant authorities currently see no immediate necessity to alter the existing July-June fiscal cycle.
