The United Kingdom risks running out of gas within next decade, according to a government assessment that warns of a potential supply shock that could leave homes and businesses without gas.
In response to a “high stress scenario” identified in a recent consultation, the government is considering plans to provide direct financial support to safeguard the country’s ageing gas infrastructure, reports Guardian.
Most respondents to the consultation agreed that the gas industry was unlikely to prepare on its own for “low probability, high-impact events” in which supplies could run dry as North Sea reserves continue to deplete.
Three-quarters of respondents supported a warning issued last year by the National Energy System Operator. The warning highlighted an “emerging risk to gas supply security” that could leave households and businesses without gas during a prolonged period of cold weather by 2030.
Energy Minister Michael Shanks cautioned that any state intervention would be highly unusual. “Any form of government intervention or investment in the gas market would be unprecedented and cannot be a decision we take lightly,” he said.
Potential measures under consideration include offering financial support to the owners of gas storage facilities and pipeline operators to make upgrades and maintenance economically viable in the decades ahead.
Shanks emphasised that while UK will continue to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels by expanding clean energy sources, the transition will not occur overnight.
“However, we recognise that this transition will not happen overnight; the gas system will still play an important role in our energy system for decades to come,” he said. Shanks added that the government has responsibility to the millions of households heated by gas, the industries relying on it for essential production, and the power system in which gas continues to play a key role.
The government’s renewed focus on securing gas supplies comes as it prepares to deliver a verdict on the future of two controversial North Sea drilling proposals at the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields.
The prime minister has promised a “pragmatic” approach to North Sea oil and gas drilling, telling journalists last month, “There is a resource there. When people are struggling, we can’t ignore that.”
Last year, gas accounted for more than a third of UK’s energy consumption, according to government figures.
Although gas usage is expected to plummet by just over three-quarters by 2050 under the guidance of Climate Change Committee, domestic supplies are likely to fall faster.
The government anticipates that North Sea oil and gas production, which has been in decline for 25 years, will fall by approximately 5 per cent each year, raising concerns over future gas security.
The National Energy System Operator’s first official gas supply assessment warned that even as the country transitions towards clean energy, potential supply shortfalls could occur on colder than usual days.
This risk is particularly acute if European storage levels are low, or if there is an unexpected outage at a pipeline or gas import terminal.
Over past five years, the UK’s North Sea fields supplied nearly half of the gas used in UK homes and businesses, while Norway provided just over a third.
Gas imports via tankers from the US and the Middle East made up a fifth of the UK’s supply, while 1 per cent was imported via pipeline from continental European countries.
In a statement, Shanks maintained that the government is delivering a gas system that is “fit for the future, maintaining secure supplies, ensuring value for money for consumers, and giving the sector the certainty it needs to invest in Britain’s energy”.
