The government has increased its revenue collection target by Tk54,000 crore to Tk553,000 crore for fiscal year 2025-26, marking the first mid-year revision of its kind in the history of Bangladesh.
On November 20. the finance ministry’s research and statistics office directed all wings of the National Board of Revenue (NBR) to submit plans by November 27 on how to achieve the target.
So, despite failing to meet its annual targets for more than a decade, the NBR now faces what officials describe as an unprecedented challenge. Economists have also questioned the rationale behind adding Tk 54,000 crore to the target at this stage of the fiscal year.
NBR Chairman Md Abdur Rahman Khan told TIMES that the government’s priority is to reduce the budget deficit. He said the decision to raise the target came from the Finance Division.
Finance Adviser Salehuddin Ahmed had initially set the target at Tk 499,000 crore. In the first four months of the current fiscal year, the government targeted Tk 165,000 crore in revenue but managed to collect Tk 1,36,000 crore, leaving a shortfall of Tk 29,000 crore.
NBR Member for VAT Policy and Implementation Md Azizur Rahman said several major segments, including hotels, restaurants and mobile vendors, continue to operate outside the tax net.
He said the NBR was considering ways to bring these activities under coverage in coming months.
Under the revised target, the NBR must now collect Tk 434,522 crore in the remaining eight months of the fiscal year instead of the earlier remaining target of Tk 362,303 crore.
Officials of the revenue authority say the new goal is far beyond achievable limits.
One NBR member, requesting anonymity, said no annual target had been met since at least 2016 and the current trend offered little chance of changing that outcome. He added that even with automation, the NBR faces a significant structural challenge.
Zahid Hussain, former lead economist of the World Bank, told TIMES that even the original Tk499,000 crore target was highly ambitious.
He said pre-election spending might lead to some rise in sales and VAT collection, but the scale of the increase had no clear policy justification.
The revised target also includes fresh goals for the three major wings of the NBR. At the import-export stage, the customs wing’s revenue goal has been raised to Tk144,040 crore from Tk129,740 crore, up 11.02 percent.
Similarly, the VAT wing’s domestic collection target has been lifted to Tk204,980 crore, from Tk184,630 crore, an increase of 11.02 percent.
Besides, the Income Tax wing’s target has also been raised to Tk204,980 crore from an earlier Tk184,630 crore, also indicating a rise of 11.02 percent.
Experts say the government must now reassess whether the NBR has the capacity to collect a total of Tk553,000 crore in a single fiscal year, warning that such a sudden increase may intensify tax pressure on several sectors of the economy.
