Deposed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is signalling a dramatic return to Bangladesh to face trial, but the ruling BNP government is not biting.
High-level sources and analysts tell TIMES of Bangladesh that the government views her homecoming as a dangerous “political trap” designed to plunge the nation back into chaos and give rival factions the perfect excuse to turn up the heat.
Circumstances indicate that Sheikh Hasina would not be able to return to the country as she planned.
Senior BNP leaders, diplomats, and political analysts told TIMES that the government views Sheikh Hasina’s potential return as a “political trap.”
They warn it could plunge the country back into confrontational politics while allowing opposition parties, particularly Jamaat-e-Islami, to ramp up pressure on the administration.
Last week, several Awami League leaders told TIMES that Hasina had informed party leadership of her intention to return to Bangladesh by August. According to them, she plans to face her legal battles head-on and expects to obtain a travel pass from the Bangladesh High Commission in New Delhi.
Hasina is currently staying in India after being sentenced to death by the International Crimes Tribunal. Under Bangladeshi law, should she return, she must first surrender to the trial court and be remain in prison. Only from jail could she seek permission to appeal the verdict before the Supreme Court.
However, BNP policymakers view her intended return as a calculated trap, believing it would dramatically energise AL leaders and activists. Party insiders fear that Hasina’s imprisonment would prompt immediate street protests by her supporters.
Furthermore, BNP leaders worry that if the Supreme Court rejects her appeal, AL activists could become even more aggressive.
A senior BNP leader and adviser to the prime minister, speaking on condition of anonymity, told TIMES that Hasina’s return could trigger severe political instability and invite foreign pressure.
“BNP does not want to drag the country into such a turbulent situation,” the leader said.
BNP leadership also suspects that Jamaat-e-Islami and its allies might exploit the situation by demanding Hasina’s swift execution and pushing to accelerate court proceedings, thereby compounding the pressure on the government.
Prime Minister Tarique Rahman hinted at these concerns during a public rally in Mymensingh on Saturday. Without explicitly naming Jamaat, he accused the party of gradually aligning itself with those “ousted from power.”
Recalling the political landscapes of 1986 and 1996, Rahman noted how Jamaat had previously cooperated with the Awami League against the BNP.
He alleged that the same forces seeking to create “anarchy” in 2024 were once again finding backing from another political block. Turning his attention to the National Citizen Party (NCP), which the BNP views as politically aligned with Jamaat, he remarked that the party had also “grown small tails.”
According to BNP insiders, Rahman’s comments reflect a widespread belief within the party that Hasina’s proposed return could serve as a catalyst for broader political unrest.
Jamaat-e-Islami, however, maintains the opposite stance.
Ahsanul Mahboob Zubair, Jamaat’s Assistant Secretary General and head of media affairs, told TIMES that the party wants Hasina to return and face justice.
“If Sheikh Hasina wants to return and serve her sentence, we will welcome it,” Zubair said. “And if she refuses to come back voluntarily, the government should extradite her under the law.”
Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed recently iterated that the government wants Hasina to face trial. However, when asked whether she would be granted a travel pass, he sidestepped a direct answer, stating instead that Bangladesh expects India to hand her over under the bilateral extradition treaty.
Two former diplomats told TIMES that India is unlikely to extradite Hasina under the current treaty. They suggested that Dhaka’s repeated emphasis on extradition, rather than issuing a travel pass, indicates the government has little interest in facilitating her return.
Following her ouster, Hasina’s diplomatic “red passport” was revoked, and she has not been issued a regular passport, leaving her in India without valid Bangladeshi travel documents. Under domestic law, citizens abroad with expired or invalid passports may apply for a travel pass from a Bangladeshi mission solely to return home.
Former Ambassador Md Abdul Hye explaining the situation said the Bangladeshis stranded in foreign country can apply for travel permit to come to Bangladesh and in regular the permit is issued.
But, if there is any confusion about the nationality, the mission sends it to Dhaka for verification and after getting the response from the headquarters, it generally issues travel permit or not.
When asked if it is mandatory to give travel permit to Bangladeshi, he said, “As a state, no country can bar its citizens from returning to their motherland. In reality, however, governments often apply political considerations in dealing with certain applicants.”
However, with travel pass the applicants needs to take exit permission of the immigration authority of their country of residence, which the host country decides on several considerations, such as their criminal record in the country of residence or any issue, he added.
Political analysts agree that the BNP government is unlikely to permit Hasina’s return due to the immense political risks. Analysts note her return would trigger complex legal and political questions, particularly regarding whether she can appeal the tribunal’s verdict after the statutory deadline has expired. Even if the government attempts to avoid a confrontation, Jamaat-e-Islami could still mobilize around the issue.
Ultimately, analysts believe the BNP fears it will lose control of the political situation if AL activists take to the streets under Hasina’s direct leadership, drawing parallels to the volatile anti-government movements of 1995-96 and 2006.
Dr Abdul Latif Masum, a retired professor of government and politics at Jahangirnagar University, told TIMES that, considering the country’s current political climate, Sheikh Hasina is unlikely to return to Bangladesh.
“The government should not give her an opportunity to return,” Dr Masum said. “If she comes back, it could trigger severe instability, and it would be unwise for the government to take such a risk.”
Dr Masum also cast doubt on whether the administration would truly welcome her back, regardless of its public stance. “No matter what the government says, it is unlikely to allow her return. Given the intense public anger against her, it may be impossible to guarantee her safety.”
Political analysts warn that Hasina’s return would also invite greater interference from foreign powers that influence Bangladesh’s internal affairs.
They note that a combination of international diplomatic manoeuvring, complex judicial processes, and potential political unrest could easily destabilise the country.
Furthermore, observers believe that if anti-BNP forces launch coordinated efforts, both openly and behind the scenes, to portray the current administration as a failure, the BNP would struggle to manage the fallout.
