Gulf oil exporters shipped more crude than before the war on about half the days in September, shipping data showed on Monday, although attacks on tankers and logistical constraints cloud the outlook for sustained higher flows, says Reuters.
Provisional data from Kpler showed the seven-day moving average for crude exports from the region stood at 18.3 million barrels per day (bpd) on 30 September, with volumes topping pre-war levels on 14 days during the month.
The surge was driven by Saudi Arabia loading from both the Red Sea and the Gulf, three weeks after a 10 September attack on its East-West pipeline, Kpler said.
Crude exports from the region averaged about 18 million bpd in the 12 months before the US-Israeli war with Iran began, according to Kpler.
The figures include Gulf oil sent through the Strait of Hormuz, via the Red Sea, and from terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.
Shipments had earlier matched or exceeded pre-war levels on a handful of days in June and July, after Washington and Tehran reached a memorandum of understanding that has since lapsed.
Shipping data provider Vortexa also said Gulf flows had recovered. Its 14-day moving average for Middle East crude and condensate exports reached 18.6 million bpd, exceeding the 10-year seasonal average and returning to pre-conflict levels.
“Most of this month-over-month increase seen in September comes from Saudi Arabia, which is ramping up exports to regain market share from other Middle Eastern countries,” said senior market analyst Xavier Tang.
“This increase in Middle East supplies will also help alleviate tightness in the oil market, especially for Asian refiners,” he added.
The jump has required more supertankers to shuttle crude through Hormuz, trade sources and analysts have said, adding that ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman have reached their limits.
Iraq’s state-owned Oil Tanker Company and some refiners have chartered tankers to load Basrah crude inside the strait, after Baghdad secured Iranian permission in August for Iraqi tankers to pass through Hormuz.
Liquefied natural gas cargoes leaving the strait also rose in September, reaching their highest level since February.
The recovery comes with growing danger. Marisks, a shipping intelligence service, said on Saturday that vessels transiting Hormuz face a “heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat” given the recent sharp rise in traffic.
Attacks on tankers have continued, with at least seven incidents reported in the past week, Marisks said.
The very large crude carrier (VLCC) Kazimah III was struck by an unknown projectile on 1 October while in the strait, causing a fire on board. Its owner, Kuwait Oil Tanker Company, did not respond to a request for comment.
Marisks said on Monday that the Liberian-flagged Aframax tanker Lipsi was hit by an unknown projectile on 4 October while transiting northeast of Jazirat Um Al Fayarin, Oman, in the strait, damaging its engine room.
Its manager, Dynacom, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The crews of both tankers were reported safe, with no casualties.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency has reported at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since 2 October.
Marisks said the recent pattern of incidents “may not necessarily represent deliberate targeting of individually selected merchant vessels”.
Available information instead indicated the possibility that Iranian forces are firing missiles into a predetermined engagement area, or “kill box”, with weapons potentially acquiring and locking onto radar signatures within it.
Before the Iran war began on 28 February, the strait typically handled about 125 large commercial vessels a day, including tankers, gas carriers, bulkers and container ships, accounting for some 20 percent of global crude and LNG supply.
