The UN body on food and agriculture forecasts a 3.8% year-on-year rise in global cereal production in 2025, reaching 2,971 million tonnes, marking the largest increase since 2013.
In its latest report, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) projected higher production of wheat, maize, and rice. Wheat production is forecast at 809.7 million tonnes, up 1.3% from 2024, primarily due to favourable rains in Australia after a dry season. The European Union and Russia have also revised their wheat yields upwards.
Coarse grains, including maize, are expected to increase by 0.3% to 1,605 million tonnes, with maize production in the US set to reach a record 427.1 million tonnes. Brazil’s strong yields and better-than-expected results in China are contributing to the growth.
Global rice production is projected to hit a record 556.4 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season, driven by strong Kharif crop plantings in India. Despite floods in Pakistan’s Punjab province, global rice production is expected to rise by 1.2% from 2024-25.
World cereal utilisation is set to reach a record 2,930 million tonnes in 2025-26, spurred by increased demand for maize and barley in animal feed and industry. Wheat consumption is also projected to hit a record, with an expected increase in human consumption due to population growth.
Global cereal trade is forecast to grow by 2.5% to 497.1 million tonnes. Wheat trade is expected to rise by 4.9%, supported by strong export prospects from Australia and the US, despite slower exports from the European Union. Coarse grains trade will also increase, especially from the EU, Mexico, and Türkiye.
In contrast, rice trade is expected to decline slightly by 1.8%, as local supplies reduce import needs in Asia and Africa. Global cereal stocks are projected to rise, particularly in wheat and rice, with increases in major producers like Canada, Russia, and India.
Despite strong cereal production, global food prices saw a slight decline in September. The FAO Food Price Index fell to 128.8 points, down from 129.7 in August, though still 3.4% higher than the previous year.
Sugar prices dropped by 4.1% due to strong harvests in Brazil, India, and Thailand, while dairy prices fell by 2.6% owing to increased butter production in Oceania. However, meat prices surged to a new record, driven by strong demand for beef and sheep meat in the US, offsetting the declines in other food sectors, with meat prices rising by 0.7%.
