Bangladesh’s economic growth was overstated by up to 1.3 percentage points during the Awami League government, as unreliable production, tax and export figures distorted official estimates of gross domestic product, according to a government-commissioned forensic audit.
The review found that GDP growth estimates were generally inflated by 0.7 to 1.13 percentage points, with discrepancies particularly evident from fiscal 2014-15 onwards.
Evidence of overestimation emerged in seven of the 22 industrial subsectors examined.
The findings were presented on Saturday at a seminar at the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) headquarters in Agargaon, Dhaka.
Experts raise concerns about the reliability of economic statistics used to prepare budgets, guide development spending and assess the country’s economic performance.
Prime Minister’s Finance and Planning Adviser Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir accused the previous government of deliberately manipulating statistics to exaggerate its development achievements, saying the practice had undermined confidence in national institutions.
The audit identified weaknesses mainly in administrative and secondary data used to calculate GDP.
A key problem was the treatment of rising prices as increased production.
According to Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), higher prices in industries such as cement and pharmaceuticals increased the monetary value of output, but the estimates did not always adequately distinguish price changes from actual production growth.
The review also found that cement production figures did not match corresponding value-added estimates, while petroleum-sector data showed unusually sharp increases in reported output followed by sudden declines.
Tax records presented another weakness. National Board of Revenue figures, particularly before the introduction of the Integrated Budget and Accounting System, or iBAS, lacked sufficient independent verification.
Export statistics maintained by the Export Promotion Bureau, Customs and Bangladesh Bank also differed, creating further inconsistencies in the data used for economic calculations.
BIDS identified seven areas of weakness, including small industrial survey samples, inadequate cross-checking of administrative records, questionable construction-sector estimates and excessive reliance on projections.
Some estimates for large industries drew on information from only two companies.
Production in small and cottage industries was often calculated using historical trends rather than fresh surveys, allowing earlier inaccuracies to persist.
Together, these weaknesses could make reported economic growth appear stronger than the underlying changes in production justified.
Titumir said the government had already begun correcting discrepancies, including a decision to use Bangladesh Bank’s export data instead of inconsistent figures from other agencies.
BIDS proposed 10 reforms to strengthen GDP calculations, including standardised data collection, mandatory technical verification of secondary information, regular manufacturing surveys and reconciliation of records across government agencies.
It also recommended checking reported production against related economic indicators, updating calculations based on the old 2005 reference year and exploring an income-based approach alongside existing production and expenditure methods.
Titumir said BBS had introduced computer-assisted field surveys with geographical verification. The government also plans to cross-check production estimates against electricity and gas consumption and improve industrial sampling.
To safeguard future statistics, BIDS called for greater professional independence for BBS, technical reviews before publication, wider access to underlying data and a permanent committee to oversee the quality of national economic statistics.
“National statistics belong to the state and the people, not to any individual or government,” Titumir said.
Bangladesh Economic Association Convener Mahbub Ullah urged stronger field-level data collection, particularly in agriculture and the informal economy, where economic activity is often inadequately measured.
BIDS Director General AK Enamul Haque and Dhaka University Economics Professor Atonu Rabbani presented the keynote paper at the event, chaired by Statistics and Informatics Division Secretary Md Firoz Sarker.
