With the 1996 Ganges Water Sharing Treaty set to expire on 12 December, Bangladesh and India have yet to begin negotiations on its renewal or a new agreement, raising doubts about the prospects of reaching a deal before the deadline.
Bangladesh formed a high-powered committee headed by Finance Adviser to the prime minister Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir in April to prepare for the negotiations. Dhaka formally approached New Delhi in June, seeking discussions on the treaty, and sent a reminder in August. India, however, has yet to respond positively to the request for negotiations.
New Delhi maintains that all matters relating to the sharing of the Ganges and other common rivers should be addressed through the bilateral Joint Rivers Commission (JRC).
India’s reluctance to engage in formal negotiations has fuelled concerns that the treaty may expire without a renewal arrangement in place.
Water and diplomatic experts believe that a high-level political understanding between the two countries is essential to break the deadlock, arguing that technical negotiations alone cannot produce a breakthrough without clear political instructions.
“Everybody understands that without political understanding at the highest level, nothing will move forward,” former ambassador Mashfee Binte Shams said.
She said political intervention had played a decisive role in reaching the existing treaty and would remain essential to securing a new arrangement.
“In 1996, Dhaka and Delhi had technical preparations for signing the treaty. The then top leadership of the two countries held a sideline meeting in Rome in November that year, where they agreed that the treaty would be signed the following month,” she said.
Water expert Malik Fida A Khan also believes that the remaining time is insufficient to complete negotiations on a comprehensive agreement before the December deadline.
“Both countries do not have enough time to complete the negotiations for renewal,” he said.
He stressed that high-level visits and political understanding were necessary to provide diplomatic momentum, after which officials at lower levels could proceed with negotiations in line with instructions from their political leadership.
Interim arrangement may be an option
The history of Ganges water-sharing arrangements suggests that an interim understanding could be an alternative if a comprehensive treaty cannot be finalised before 12 December.
The first Ganges Water Agreement was signed in Dhaka on 5 November 1977 by Bangladesh’s then President Ziaur Rahman and India’s Prime Minister Morarji Desai. The five-year agreement, effective from 1 January 1978 to 31 May 1982, included a provision for review after three years.
The agreement was not renewed in 1982. Instead, the two countries signed a two-year memorandum of understanding (MoU), retaining the spirit of the original arrangement. Another similar MoU was signed in 1985 for a three-year period.
According to Malik Fida A Khan, no further MoU or agreement was signed between the two countries until the 1996 treaty.
He suggested that Dhaka and Delhi could consider signing a short-term MoU, possibly for two years, to avoid a complete breakdown in the water-sharing arrangement.
“In my view, this time such an MoU can be signed for two years, and during that period, the technical committee can put forward its proposals for negotiations. But again, political understanding is a must,” he said.
Such an interim arrangement, however, would also require political agreement between the two governments.
However, foreign ministry officials confirmed that India had so far shown no interest in pursuing any interim arrangement.
Bilateral tensions complicate negotiations
The already strained relationship between Dhaka and Delhi presents another major obstacle to progress on the Ganges treaty.
The presence of ousted prime minister Sheikh Hasina in India and New Delhi’s decision to allow her to carry out political activities from its territory have emerged as contentious issues between the two capitals, complicating efforts to restore normal bilateral engagement.
Mashfee Binte Shams said the immediate priority should be to rebuild working-level relations and create an environment in which the two countries can engage constructively.
“There are two things. The first priority is to bring back the relationship at the working level, where both countries can engage themselves fruitfully,” she said.
Once normal engagement is restored, Bangladesh will need to present a compelling case to India for concluding a new Ganges water-sharing agreement, she added.
Dhaka may also need to address India’s concerns, including those relating to security, border management, connectivity or other interests that New Delhi considers important, she said.
The experts believe that without renewed political engagement and a clear understanding between the two governments, the technical process is unlikely to make meaningful progress before the treaty expires.
