Bangladesh’s economy remained in a fragile and uneven recovery phase at the end of March 2026, with weak growth, persistent inflation and continued external sector strain limiting momentum, according to the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) Review of Economic Situation in Bangladesh for January–March 2026.
The assessment, released by MCCI, comes amid ongoing political uncertainty and a volatile global environment, resulting in mixed performance across key macroeconomic indicators.
Over the next three months, exports, imports and foreign exchange reserves are expected to improve moderately, supported by seasonal demand and external sector adjustments, the report said. Remittance inflows, however, are projected to decline in April before recovering over the following two months.
Inflation is expected to edge higher in April and May due to Eid-related demand pressures, before rising again in June of FY2025-26, indicating continued short-term price instability.
During the January–March quarter, growth remained subdued, weighed down by weak export performance, sluggish private investment and tight monetary policy aimed at containing inflation.
High living costs and constrained credit conditions continued to suppress domestic demand and industrial activity, keeping private sector sentiment cautious and slowing the pace of recovery.
Externally, the report highlighted pressure from geopolitical tensions and ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which triggered volatility in global fuel prices, increased import costs and disrupted international trade and shipping flows.
These developments added strain to Bangladesh’s balance of payments position and complicated the inflation outlook through import-driven price transmission.
Despite these pressures, strong remittance inflows continued to support foreign exchange reserves and helped cushion the widening trade deficit, maintaining relative external stability.
MCCI said while macroeconomic indicators show gradual improvement, the recovery remains fragile and exposed to both domestic constraints and external shocks, with inflation and global volatility expected to dominate the near-term outlook.
