Every budget creates winners and losers. The proposed FY2026-27 budget is no exception.
An analysis of the draft budget speech, draft Finance Bill 2026 and budget summary obtained by TIMES shows that while the government has largely avoided major tax increases, it has selectively distributed tax benefits, incentives and relief across different segments of the economy, creating clear beneficiaries as well as groups that will bear a greater share of the adjustment burden.
Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury is scheduled to place the proposed budget in parliament today.
Among the biggest winners are sectors aligned with the government’s broader economic priorities.
Startups, freelancers and content creators are set to receive continued tax support as the government seeks to encourage innovation, digital services and the formalisation of emerging economic activities.
Solar power projects and electric vehicles have also received tax incentives as part of efforts to promote renewable energy and green investment.
Domestic edible-oil producers using locally produced oilseeds emerge as another significant beneficiary, receiving long-term tax incentives aimed at reducing import dependence and strengthening domestic agricultural value chains.
Private universities and medical colleges are among the most surprising winners. The budget proposes reducing their corporate tax rate from 15 per cent to 10 per cent, providing a substantial fiscal benefit to institutions that have long argued that existing tax rates were too high for an expanding education sector.
The middle class receives more modest gains.
The proposed increase in the tax-free income threshold from Tk3,50,000 to Tk3,75,000 will provide some relief to individual taxpayers. Several withholding taxes are also set to be reduced, while the minimum tax for new taxpayers will fall from Tk3,000 to Tk1,000.
Formal businesses also stand to benefit.
The government has largely refrained from raising corporate tax rates and has proposed several measures intended to improve predictability in the tax system. Businesses already operating within the formal economy are likely to face fewer distortions as the government moves to reduce gaps between compliant and non-compliant firms.
The picture is less favourable for businesses operating outside the formal tax system.
The Finance Bill proposes linking tax and VAT registration to a range of business activities, including bank accounts, loans, trade licences, utility connections and commercial vehicle registration. Businesses that have historically operated with limited interaction with tax authorities may face growing pressure to regularise their status.
Users of imported services also face new costs.
The Finance Bill proposes a 15 per cent VAT on imported services, with banks and authorised foreign exchange dealers required to deduct the tax before remitting payments abroad. Businesses dependent on foreign software, cloud services, digital platforms, consulting services or technical support could therefore see higher operating costs.
Small and medium-sized enterprises occupy a more complex position.
Formal SMEs may benefit from a more level competitive environment if non-compliant firms are brought into the tax system. However, smaller informal businesses may struggle to absorb the additional compliance requirements associated with registration, documentation and reporting.
For poor households, the direct tax impact is limited because most are outside the income-tax net. Their fortunes will depend more on whether the budget succeeds in controlling inflation, protecting food supplies and delivering promised social spending.
Behind these individual measures lies a broader political and economic calculation.
Rather than spreading benefits evenly across the economy, the budget channels support towards sectors associated with innovation, renewable energy, domestic production and formal economic activity.
At the same time, it increases pressure on businesses and transactions that remain outside the government’s preferred economic framework.
Whether those choices accelerate growth and investment, or simply redistribute costs across the economy, will become one of the defining questions of the next fiscal year.
