With the 13th National Parliamentary Election scheduled for February, a public opinion survey shows the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leading far ahead of its rivals.
The survey was published on Wednesday by private firm Innovision Consulting at its Agargaon Archive office in Dhaka. The second part of the “People’s Election Pulse Survey Round Two” covered 10,413 voters from 9,398 households across 64 districts in eight divisions.
Among participants who had decided to vote, BNP received the highest support, with 41.3% backing the party. Jamaat-e-Islami followed with 30.3% support. The deposed Awami League, targeted during last year’s mass uprising, came third with 18.8%, while the newly formed National Citizen Party (NCP) secured 4.1%, placing fourth.
Voters also expressed their view on government formation. About 40% believe BNP is most likely to form the next government, followed by Jamaat at 23.3%. Only 12.1% favor the Awami League returning to power, while 3.8% support NCP.
The survey highlighted the impact of candidates’ personal image on voting decisions. Around 65.5% of voters said they would prioritise the candidate over the party symbol, whereas only 14.7% said they would vote based on party symbols.
Voter satisfaction with local political activities varied. Jamaat-e-Islami recorded the highest satisfaction at 13.7%, followed by NCP at 9.1% and BNP at 8.2%. Among young and female voters, satisfaction with Jamaat’s activities was higher.
On participation conditions, 45.58% of respondents believe the Awami League should not be allowed to contest without accountability, while 45.79% said all parties should be given the chance to participate.
If the Awami League is left out, some of its voters might shift allegiance – about 20% towards BNP, 14.8% to Jamaat, and 2.1% to NCP.
As potential government, 39.1% see BNP as most capable, followed by Jamaat at 28.1% and NCP at 4.9%. Key voter expectations for the future government include police reform, anti-corruption measures, and impartial law and order. However, a significant portion remains undecided.
Compared to the March survey by the same firm, BNP’s support among decided voters dropped slightly by 0.4 percentage points, and Jamaat’s by 1.3 points, while Awami League’s support increased by 4.8 points.
Regional variations were also evident. BNP led in six divisions, Jamaat topped Rangpur, and the Awami League showed the strongest position in Barishal.
Innovision Consulting’s survey provides a significant insight into the political landscape, indicating voter preferences, party popularity, and which parties are seen as most capable of forming the next government ahead of the elections.
