The El Niño climate phenomenon is expected to intensify further before reaching its forecast peak in December, potentially making it one of the strongest events recorded since at least 1950, the United Nations warned on Thursday.
In its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the UN’s specialised weather and climate agency, said the naturally occurring phenomenon would bring higher temperatures across much of the world, compounding the effects of human-induced climate change, reports AFP.
The WMO said El Niño would continue to strengthen ahead of its December peak, bringing above-average temperatures to much of the globe and shifting rainfall patterns. These changes could increase the risk of droughts and floods in different regions.
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures rise in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, triggering changes in global wind patterns, atmospheric pressure and rainfall.
The phenomenon typically recurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and 12 months. Climate conditions alternate between El Niño and its cooler counterpart, La Niña, with neutral conditions occurring between the two phases.
“El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly,” WMO chief Celeste Saulo said.
Projections based on a consensus among 13 leading national and international meteorological centres indicate a near-100% likelihood that the event will persist through February 2027. It could rank among the most powerful El Niño events since 1950.
Sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to reach unprecedented levels during October-November-December 2026. The resulting changes in global weather patterns could affect economies, ecosystems and communities worldwide.
Explaining the physical processes behind the phenomenon, Saulo said El Niño does not add new heat to the planet but releases thermal energy stored deep in the ocean.
“The ocean it’s drawing from is the warmest we’ve ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release,” the WMO chief said.
The index measuring sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, the core region of El Niño, rose from 1.6°C above normal in June to 2.5°C above normal in August.
The anomaly is projected to reach about 3.7°C above normal during October-November-December. If the forecast materialises, it would be the highest level since observations began, surpassing the previous record of 2.6°C set during the 2015-2016 El Niño event.
Historical climate data show that the previous El Niño contributed to making 2023 the second-warmest year on record, while 2024 set a global temperature record, with temperatures reaching about 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline.
Meteorological experts note that although El Niño typically peaks between November and February, the resulting rise in global temperatures usually occurs later.
Severe impacts are already being reported in several regions, including Central America, where intense drought is causing livestock and crops to die.
