The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) landslide win in West Bengal is widely seen as a decisive moment with potentially far-reaching implications for Dhaka–Delhi ties, particularly given the Indian state’s geographic, cultural, and economic proximity to Bangladesh.
Amid the developments, Bangladesh’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs Shama Obaed Islam downplayed concerns over bilateral ties.
“Even if the BJP forms the government in West Bengal, there will be no negative impact on relations between the two countries,” she said at the foreign ministry, adding that discussions on issues such as push-ins, border management and water sharing would continue. She also expressed hope that Indian visas would be opened more widely soon.
Analysts say that, unlike previous scenarios, the alignment of political power between New Delhi and Kolkata could lead to more substantive policy coordination, directly affecting bilateral issues.
Former foreign secretary Md Shahidul Haque said the state’s approach towards Bangladesh would largely depend on the broader Dhaka–Delhi relationship. “If relations between Dhaka and Delhi remain strong, a BJP-led government in West Bengal is more likely to align with the central government’s position,” he said.
It is expected that the overall coordination between state and the centre will improve in the coming days, he added.
Echoing similar sentiments, former ambassador Md Sufiur Rahman noted that the outcome could significantly influence bilateral ties. “This result is likely to have a major impact on Bangladesh–India relations,” he said. Delhi-Kolkata alignment may have serious implications for Bangladesh, if divergences cannot be mitigated.
But former ambassador M Humayun Kabir echoed State Minister Shama saying the role of a state government in India’s foreign policy is very limited. “Our relationship is primarily with Delhi,” he said, adding that Bangladesh expects democratic conduct from any elected administration and does not foresee immediate challenges.
West Bengal factor
West Bengal plays a critical role in several areas of Bangladesh–India cooperation, particularly in transboundary river management.
A key unresolved issue remains the Teesta water-sharing agreement, alongside the renewal of the Ganges water treaty. The Teesta deal was expected to be signed in 2011 during the visit of then Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh to Dhaka, but it stalled due to opposition from the state government led by Mamata Banerjee.
Despite repeated assurances from New Delhi since then, the agreement has remained pending. With the BJP now in power at both the central and state levels, analysts see a possible opening for movement.
“Previously, Bangladesh made several serious attempts, but the agreement could not be finalised,” said Shahidul Haque. “Now, with improved Dhaka–Delhi relations, there is a possibility that the new West Bengal government may support the central government’s commitments.”
Analysts add that greater political alignment could also ease cooperation on other shared rivers and cross-border infrastructure projects, though much will depend on the policy priorities of the central government and local political considerations.
Impact on Bangladesh
The BJP’s rise in West Bengal may carry broader political and security implications for Bangladesh.
The party is already in power in neighbouring states such as Assam and Tripura, where debates over migration and identity have at times fuelled anti-Bangladesh and anti-Muslim rhetoric. Observers warn that similar narratives could emerge in West Bengal under BJP rule.
“We are aware of negative developments in Assam and Tripura,” said Sufiur Rahman. “The BJP made a strong push in West Bengal and succeeded. It suggests that voters were receptive to a harder narrative around alleged minority suppression, regardless of whether it reflects reality.”
He cautioned that such a shift could influence public sentiment in Bangladesh. “There is a possibility that anti-India sentiment could rise here if anti-Bangladesh rhetoric intensifies further in West Bengal with support from the central government,” he added.
At the same time, closer political alignment between the state and New Delhi could streamline decision-making on bilateral issues, potentially allowing faster progress if both sides prioritise cooperation.
Altaf Parvez, a South Asian history researcher and columnist, said the BJP’s rise signals a broader trend of growing nationalism in the region. He warned that narratives portraying sections of the Muslim community as Bangladeshis could heighten the risk of minority persecution. “If such a situation emerges, it will raise questions about Bangladesh’s diplomatic response and public reaction,” he noted.
Offering a different view, Mustafizur Rahman, a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, said key economic ties between Bangladesh and India – including export-oriented industries, raw material imports and component procurement – do not depend on a state government. He acknowledged that West Bengal plays a more direct role in tourism and medical travel but does not expect the election outcome to significantly alter bilateral economic relations.
Meanwhile, some analysts prefer to wait before drawing firm conclusions. Political Scientist Dilara Chowdhury said there is often a gap between pre-election rhetoric and post-election governance.
“There is a difference between what political parties say before elections and what they do after coming to power. It is therefore reasonable to wait and see what policies are actually adopted if the BJP forms the government. We have seen the role Mamata Banerjee has played in issues like water sharing,” she said.
At the same time, she cautioned that the political shift could alter the broader environment. “The Trinamool Congress was not driven by religious fanaticism. In contrast, the BJP’s approach could create a different situation by affecting the democratic environment and religious harmony, which may, in turn, influence relations between the two countries.”
