The country’s post-uprising transition remains fragile, with experts warning of elite power continuity, uncertain reform pathways and unresolved justice concerns nearly two years after the July 2024 mass movement.
The concerns were raised at a plenary session titled “Upheaval to Uncertainty: Stability Order and Growth in Bangladesh’s Emerging Political Settlement” at the 9th SANEM Annual Economists’ Conference in the capital on Saturday.
Professor Kazi Maruful Islam of Dhaka University’s Development Studies Department described the transition as shaped by a “triple mandate” combining electoral legitimacy, public demand for institutional reform and a strong generational push led by youth.
The framework suggests a structured path to stability, but analysts said political trajectory remains unpredictable.
Centre for Policy Dialogue distinguished fellow Rounaq Jahan said political actors often diverge from what civil society views as rational behaviour.
Calls for cooperation between major parties such as Awami League and BNP have historically failed to materialise, she said.
Mirza M Hassan, senior research fellow of BRAC Institute of Governance and Development said rationality itself varies across actors, limiting its ability to predict outcomes.
Despite the uprising being driven by young citizens demanding systemic change, political authority remains concentrated among established elites.
The transition reflects “elite circulation without transformation,” with one dominant group replacing another without altering the structure of power, he said.
A presentation by Maruful Islam proposes phased governance, but Jahan said simultaneous pressure from economic actors, citizens and institutions makes delaying reform risky.
Hassan said state-building in Bangladesh resembles “building a ship in open turbulence,” highlighting persistent instability risks.
The presentation envisions managed political contestation, but Hassan said dominant actors may instead pursue a confrontational “big bang” strategy, testing opposition strength through sustained pressure.
Short-term stability achieved by excluding major actors may prove unsustainable, Jahan said.
Sara Hossain said accountability for the July killings, which reportedly left more than 800 people dead, is essential.
“Without accountability, there can be no real healing,” she said.
Hossain warned that selective justice and inconsistent arrests risk creating a new victim narrative marked by arbitrary detention and rights concerns.
The country continues to struggle with rule by law rather than rule of law, she said.
Hassan said meaningful reform depends on “effective political cost,” driven by citizens, opposition forces or institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, rather than reputational pressure.
The transition is marked by tension and uncertainty rather than a clear path forward.
Balancing stability with inclusion, reform with political realities and justice with credibility will shape Bangladesh’s next phase.The country’s post-uprising transition remains fragile, with experts warning of elite power continuity, uncertain reform pathways and unresolved justice concerns nearly two years after the July 2024 mass movement.
The concerns were raised at a plenary session titled “Upheaval to Uncertainty: Stability Order and Growth in Bangladesh’s Emerging Political Settlement” at the 9th SANEM Annual Economists’ Conference in the capital on Saturday.
Professor Kazi Maruful Islam of Dhaka University’s Development Studies Department described the transition as shaped by a “triple mandate” combining electoral legitimacy, public demand for institutional reform and a strong generational push led by youth.
The framework suggests a structured path to stability, but analysts said political trajectory remains unpredictable.
Centre for Policy Dialogue distinguished fellow Rounaq Jahan said political actors often diverge from what civil society views as rational behaviour.
Calls for cooperation between major parties such as Awami League and BNP have historically failed to materialise, she said.
Mirza M Hassan, senior research fellow of BRAC Institute of Governance and Development said rationality itself varies across actors, limiting its ability to predict outcomes.
Despite the uprising being driven by young citizens demanding systemic change, political authority remains concentrated among established elites.
The transition reflects “elite circulation without transformation,” with one dominant group replacing another without altering the structure of power, he said.
A presentation by Maruful Islam proposes phased governance, but Jahan said simultaneous pressure from economic actors, citizens and institutions makes delaying reform risky.
Hassan said state-building in Bangladesh resembles “building a ship in open turbulence,” highlighting persistent instability risks.
The presentation envisions managed political contestation, but Hassan said dominant actors may instead pursue a confrontational “big bang” strategy, testing opposition strength through sustained pressure.
Short-term stability achieved by excluding major actors may prove unsustainable, Jahan said.
Sara Hossain said accountability for the July killings, which reportedly left more than 800 people dead, is essential.
“Without accountability, there can be no real healing,” she said.
Hossain warned that selective justice and inconsistent arrests risk creating a new victim narrative marked by arbitrary detention and rights concerns.
The country continues to struggle with rule by law rather than rule of law, she said.
Hassan said meaningful reform depends on “effective political cost,” driven by citizens, opposition forces or institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, rather than reputational pressure.
The transition is marked by tension and uncertainty rather than a clear path forward.
Balancing stability with inclusion, reform with political realities and justice with credibility will shape Bangladesh’s next phase.
