The path back to formal politics appears increasingly uncertain for Awami League, despite signs of renewed activity in several districts following the formation of the new BNP government.
Although party activists have reopened offices in parts of the country, raising speculation about a possible political comeback, analysts and political insiders say the road ahead remains difficult.
Ruling BNP has adopted what observers describe as a cautious and strategic stance, while opposition forces including Jamaat-e-Islami and National Citizen Party (NCP) have taken an openly hardline position against any return.
Awami League’s political activities remain temporarily banned under a government notification issued by the interim administration. Yet the reopening of offices in several districts has prompted renewed debate over whether the party is preparing to re-enter the political arena.
A TIMES of Bangladesh investigation suggests that while BNP may not be entirely closing the door, it is unlikely to allow Awami League to return to active politics in the near term.
Instead, BNP leaders indicate they will rely on “existing laws” in dealing with the matter — a signal that any reopening of political space will be governed strictly through legal channels.
Meanwhile, Jamaat-e-Islami and NCP have made their opposition clear. Both parties have warned against any move that would enable Awami League to resume political operations.
Leadership crisis and exile
Political analyst and historian Mohiuddin Ahmad said Awami League must first resolve its own internal questions before seeking a public return.
“The party leadership must decide whether they truly want to return,” he said. “Top leaders have been convicted in enforced disappearance and murder cases and are now abroad. Even party activists are uncomfortable with the confrontational rhetoric coming from outside the country. The first question is: who will lead the party inside Bangladesh?”
He suggested that reopening a handful of offices does not necessarily signal an organised political revival. “This may be the initiative of confused activists, possibly through informal understandings with other actors. Opening a few offices is not yet a political process,” he said.
Since the fall of the Awami League regime government on 5 August 2024 following a student-led mass uprising, most senior Awami League leaders have remained in hiding or abroad. Many continue to communicate with party activists through social media.
BNP’s cautious strategy
Two days ago, BNP Secretary General and Minister for Local Government, Rural Development and Cooperatives Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir said Awami League remains legally banned and therefore cannot reopen offices or conduct normal political activities.
“Legally, Awami League is banned. We are not thinking beyond the law,” he said.
At the grassroots level, BNP leaders argue that they endured more than 15 years of repression under Awami League rule and have not forgotten what they describe as the party’s conduct prior to the change of government. While some acknowledge the need for strategic positioning ahead of upcoming local government elections, they insist there is no immediate plan to allow Awami League space.
A BNP vice-chairman told TIMES that speculation suggesting Awami League might be allowed to re-enter politics to counterbalance Jamaat was unfounded.
“There may be strategy on the issue, but no space will be given now,” he said.
Jamaat and NCP issue strong warnings
Jamaat-e-Islami issued a press statement on Tuesday expressing concern over the reopening of Awami League offices.
“Awami League leaders accused of mass killings are facing justice. The party is banned. There is no scope for them to engage in politics,” Party spokesperson and Assistant Secretary General Ahsanul Mahboob Zubair said.
If efforts were made to rehabilitate the party, Jamaat would mobilise public resistance, he added.
NCP struck a similar tone. Joint Chief Coordinator Arifur Rahman Tuhin said Awami League had forfeited its right to political participation due to its record. “Domestically and internationally, they are now known as a party responsible for mass killings,” he said. “If the BNP facilitates their return, we will respond accordingly.”
Awami League leadership sounds buoyant
Awami League Joint General Secretary AFM Bahauddin Nasim told TIMES over the phone that the party expects the new government to allow it to resume political activities. “Our leaders and activists are reopening offices based on that expectation,” he said.
He dismissed speculation of any electoral understanding with the BNP as “baseless”, noting that Awami League had boycotted the recent vote. When asked whether new leadership would be considered in place of the current top leadership, he said that party’s “millions of activists” would be capable of leading its reorganisation. He did not clarify whether the party would formally apologise over allegations of mass killings.
Asked whether a ‘refined’ Awami League — excluding leaders accused of enforced disappearances, killings or corruption — might be acceptable, Nasim dismissed the idea.
“Cases are false and politically motivated. Even if some leaders are abroad, millions of supporters remain in the country. Every activist is a leader,” he said.
Grassroots frustration and calls for change
At the district and upazila level, however, there is growing frustration. Awami League leaders from Satkhira and Gaibandha told TIMES that although some district offices were reopened recently, many were later shut down and arrests followed.
“Cases, attacks and intimidation continue. The road ahead is not easy,” one local leader said.
Many grassroots members are calling for new leadership, arguing that past decisions and individuals had harmed the party’s standing. Some have even suggested temporarily sidelining former prime minister Sheikh Hasina and rebuilding under field-level leadership.
Others say the party cannot move forward without addressing internal divisions and rebuilding unity from the bottom up.
Legal battle ahead?
Several Awami League leaders currently outside the country indicated that the party may challenge in the High Court the legality of the interim government’s notification that temporarily suspended its activities.
According to party insiders, the high command is weighing legal options while also seeking to continue political mobilisation through meetings and organisational efforts where possible.
An uncertain return
Ultimately, Awami League’s return to politics appears to hinge on multiple factors: the outcome of legal challenges, internal leadership restructuring, grassroots cohesion, and the political calculations of both the ruling BNP and opposition parties.
Reopening offices may serve as a symbolic gesture of resilience. But with a formal ban still in place, leadership in exile, and rival parties adopting firm positions, the party’s path back into mainstream politics remains long and uncertain.
