Despite reaching seat-sharing arrangements with several smaller parties under different equations, both BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami—the key rivals in the upcoming parliamentary election—remain anxious about their chances of winning those constituencies.
A combination of local political dynamics and internal party calculations has created multiple challenges in these seats, prompting concern within the allied parties over how those obstacles will be managed.
Ahead of the election, BNP has ceded 15 constituencies to its allies. However, in most of these seats, rebel candidates from within BNP remain active.
In constituencies where there are no rebel candidates, local BNP leaders and activists have struggled to accept nominees from other parties, further heightening the risk of defeat in those areas.
Leaders of several smaller parties allied with BNP have said the lack of effective cooperation from the larger party has caused frustration among them.
BNP has allocated seats to anti-fascist movement partners for a variety of strategic reasons. In particular, by conceding seats to Islamic parties aligned with it, BNP seeks to demonstrate a more accommodating stance towards Islamist groups.
Parties that have entered into seat-sharing arrangements with BNP include Gono Odhikar Parishad, Revolutionary Workers Party and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, among others.
Jamaat-e-Islami, meanwhile, is running a vigorous campaign to secure a “yes” vote in the referendum on the implementation of the July Charter. The party is seeking to distance itself from criticism over its controversial role during the Liberation War by aligning with a number of freedom fighters and leaders of the July Uprising.
As part of this effort, the party has entered into seat-sharing arrangements with Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by decorated freedom fighter Colonel (retd) Oli Ahmed, and National Citizen Party (NCP).
Jamaat is also part of an electoral alliance involving eight parties, including Islami Andolan Bangladesh and Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis led by Mamunul Haque.
While the BNP has already announced the constituencies designated for its allies, Jamaat has yet to finalise its seat-sharing arrangements.
However, sources say Jamaat and like-minded parties are working to conclude the seat-sharing deals within the next two to three days.
Unease within BNP
BNP is facing growing unease over its prospects in constituencies it has ceded to allied parties.
In Jhenaidah-4, Rashed Khan is contesting the election with BNP’s sheaf of paddy symbol after resigning as general secretary of Gono Odhikar Parishad and joining BNP. However, Saiful Islam Firoz, central senior joint secretary of Jubo Dal, is running as an independent candidate in the same constituency.
A visit to Hat Barobazar in Kaliganj upazila on Wednesday found that a large section of BNP leaders and activists were actively campaigning for the independent candidate.
By contrast, no visible campaign activity was seen in support of Rashed Khan. BNP leaders from the constituency, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they were unwilling to vote for a candidate from another party.
Rashed Khan told TIMES of Bangladesh that BNP leaders and activists had not yet fully extended their support to him. “At some point, all differences will be set aside, and everyone in BNP will work in my favour,” he said.
In Dhaka-12, former Jubo Dal president Saiful Alam Nirob was initially nominated by BNP. However, the party finalised the nomination of Revolutionary Workers Party general secretary Saiful Haque for the constituency last Wednesday, replacing Nirob.
Following the decision, Nirob has entered the race as an independent candidate.
In Patuakhali-3, the party has nominated Gono Odhikar Parishad president Nurul Haque Nur. However, BNP leader Hasan Mamun is contesting the seat as an independent candidate, with most BNP leaders and activists reportedly taking a clear position in his favour.
A similar situation has been observed in Jashore-5 (Manirampur). Although Upazila BNP president and former municipal mayor Shahid Mohammad Iqbal Hossain was initially given the party’s nomination, he was dropped at the last moment and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam leader Rashid Bin Wakkas was finalised as the candidate.
Shahid Iqbal is now contesting the seat as an independent candidate.
A field visit on Thursday found that most BNP leaders and activists in Bhojgati and Dhakuria unions of the constituency are working in support of Shahid Iqbal.
Even those not actively campaigning for Shahid Iqbal were seen rejecting Jamiat leader Rashid Wakkas, openly declaring that they would not vote for him.
BNP Standing Committee member Nazrul Islam Khan told TIMES of Bangladesh that the party had nominated candidates it believed were capable of winning. “We do not see any reason for concern about victory,” he said.
He also rejected allegations that the BNP was not extending cooperation to smaller parties in the constituencies it had ceded.
Jamaat-led alliance faces challenges
Jamaat’s original eight-party alliance includes Islami Andolan Bangladesh, Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis, Khelafat Majlis, Jatiya Ganatantrik Party, Khelafat Andolan, Bangladesh Development Party and Nezam-e-Islam Party. More recently, two additional parties—LDP and NCP—have joined the alliance.
The alliance is preparing to publish its final list of candidates for most constituencies within the next two to three days.
Field visits to various areas in Jashore, Satkhira, Narail and Bagerhat found that, apart from Jamaat, most alliance partners have little visible influence on the ground.
In a few constituencies, Islami Andolan Bangladesh retains a limited vote base. However, even where candidates from other parties have been nominated, Jamaat activists have struggled to accept nominees outside their own party.
Several Jamaat leaders told TIMES that despite the challenges, they do not see the involvement of smaller parties as a crisis for the alliance.
“Many senior leaders have been denied nominations, which has caused some disappointment. But as the final stage approaches, everyone will ultimately campaign for the alliance candidates,” said Jamaat Assistant Secretary General AHM Hamidur Rahman Azad.
