Bangladesh’s rice production could fall by 7.5 lakh tonnes in the 2026–27 financial year, prompting a projected increase in imports, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), although local agricultural authorities expect output to rise.
The USDA forecasts production of 3.69 crore tonnes, down nearly 2 per cent from 3.765 crore tonnes the previous year, with declines expected across the Aus, Aman and Boro seasons. Rice imports are projected to rise 14.3 per cent to 16 lakh tonnes.
The estimates appear in the Grain and Feed Update: Bangladesh, published in September by the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.
The Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), however, disputes the outlook.
DAE Director General Md Abdur Rahim told TIMES that current field conditions did not suggest a production decline. Instead, the department expects a larger harvest, although actual output will become clearer after the Aman harvest is completed.
The sharpest seasonal decline is forecast for Aman, with production falling by 3 lakh tonnes to 1.45 crore tonnes from 1.48 crore tonnes. The USDA expects cultivated area to remain unchanged at 58 lakh hectares.
Aus output is projected to decline by 2.5 lakh tonnes to 21 lakh tonnes from 23.5 lakh tonnes, while its cultivated area is expected to shrink by 1 lakh hectares to 9.5 lakh hectares.
Boro production could slip by 2 lakh tonnes to 2.03 crore tonnes from 2.05 crore tonnes, despite its cultivated area remaining unchanged at 49 lakh hectares.
The forecasts put the largest reductions in Aman and Aus, although the USDA report does not separately explain the specific weather or farming conditions behind the projected declines in Boro and Aman yields.
Rahim also questioned the USDA’s Aus acreage estimates.
He said the department had targeted 10 lakh hectares for Aus cultivation and achieved more than 9 lakh hectares, broadly similar to last year’s level. Aman cultivation, meanwhile, exceeded 59 lakh hectares, according to the DAE.
Agricultural economist Jahangir Alam, an Ekushey Padak recipient, considers the USDA’s overall production forecast broadly reasonable, pointing to flooding, fertiliser shortages, rising fuel costs and potential weather risks.
“Aus production was lower this year because of flooding,” he told TIMES.
For Aman, he said fertiliser shortages and higher fuel prices could reduce yields, particularly if farmers could not obtain sufficient agricultural inputs on time.
The outlook for the coming Boro season could also be affected by dry conditions and possible drought associated with El Niño, he warned.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon involving unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which can disrupt rainfall, temperatures and weather patterns in different regions.
Alam said adequate irrigation, fertiliser and diesel supplies would be critical to protecting Boro production.
He argued that direct cash assistance could help farmers absorb higher input costs and potentially increase output.
“If we can ensure proper irrigation during the Boro season and provide farmers with cash support to offset higher fertiliser and diesel prices, Boro production may increase,” he said.
Against the prospect of lower domestic output, the USDA has raised its rice import forecast to 16 lakh tonnes for 2026–27, an increase of 14.3 per cent over the previous year.
Whether imports reach that level will depend on actual domestic production, market prices and import conditions.
