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Postal votes may swing close races

Postal votes may swing close races
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Postal voting is set to play a potentially decisive role in the country’s upcoming parliamentary election, with more than 15.33 lakh voters registering to cast their ballots by mail—far exceeding expectations of the Election Commission (EC) and raising the prospect that results in tightly contested constituencies could hinge on these votes.

Election officials believe the scale of participation through postal ballots may significantly influence the overall electoral equation, particularly in marginal seats where victory and defeat are often separated by narrow margins.

Data from the EC’s Postal Vote BD website and mobile application show that a total of 15 lakh 33 thousand 682 voters have registered for postal voting. Of them, 7 lakh 61 thousand 140 voters are based inside the country, while 7 lakh 72 thousand 542 are expatriate Bangladeshis living abroad.

A gender-based breakdown reveals that 12 lakh 81 thousand 434 men and 2 lakh 52 thousand 246 women have registered under the postal voting system, highlighting a significant gender gap in participation.

Among domestic registrants, government employees form the largest group, with 5 lakh 75 thousand 200 officials signing up to vote by post, largely because they are posted away from their home constituencies.

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This is followed by 1 lakh 69 thousand 642 officials and employees engaged in election duties, 10 thousand 10 members of the Ansar and Village Defence Party (VDP), and 6 thousand 283 voters currently in legal custody who have registered to vote through postal ballots.

This election marks the first time that election duty officials, government employees working outside their constituencies, and incarcerated voters have been allowed to participate through an IT-supported postal ballot system.

Constituency-level analysis indicates that all 300 parliamentary seats have at least 1 thousand registered postal voters. In 115 constituencies, the number of registered postal voters exceeds 5 thousand, while 18 constituencies have recorded registrations of more than 10 thousand, a volume large enough to potentially alter outcomes in closely fought races.

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Election officials say these figures underscore the growing importance of postal votes in determining results, particularly in constituencies where competition is intense.

The constituencies with the highest number of registered postal voters are largely concentrated in Feni, Chattogram, Cumilla, Noakhali, Chandpur, Cox’s Bazar, Lakshmipur and Sylhet regions. According to EC data, Feni-3 has recorded the highest number of registrations, with 16 thousand 90 voters opting for postal ballots.

This is followed by Chattogram-15 with 14 thousand 301, Cumilla-10 with 13 thousand 977, Noakhali-1 with 13 thousand 658, Noakhali-3 with 12 thousand 829, Feni-2 with 12 thousand 797, Cumilla-11 with 12 thousand 583, Sylhet-1 with 12 thousand 458, and Cumilla-5 with 12 thousand 373 registered postal voters.

Overseas Bangladeshi voters have registered from 123 countries, with the highest number of registrations recorded in Saudi Arabia, where 2 lakh 39 thousand 186 voters have signed up for postal voting.

Other major countries of registration include Malaysia with 84 thousand 292, Qatar with 76 thousand 139, Oman with 56 thousand 207, United Arab Emirates with 38 thousand 574, Kuwait with 35 thousand 386, the United Kingdom with 32 thousand 414, and the United States with 31 thousand 64 registered voters.

However, EC data show that no registrations were recorded from 33 countries, including Venezuela, Syria and Cuba.

EC officials note that although postal voting has existed in the country’s electoral framework for years, voter participation through this method remained negligible in previous elections.

The introduction of a fully IT-enabled postal voting system for the first time has significantly boosted voter interest and engagement, particularly among expatriate Bangladeshis and mobile public-sector employees.

Through the Postal Vote BD application, overseas voters as well as three categories of domestic voters have been able to register, including election duty officials, government employees posted outside their constituencies, and voters in legal custody.

Under the current election schedule, registered postal voters will be able to cast their ballots after the allocation of electoral symbols on 21 January, with ballots eligible to be sent back by post from the following day.

Election officials have stressed that ballots must reach the respective returning officers within the stipulated timeframe and no later than 12 February, as any ballot received after the deadline will be excluded from the final count.

Election Commissioner Md Anwarul Islam Sarker described the response to postal voting as unprecedented, saying the turnout had surpassed official expectations. He noted that globally, postal voting typically accounts for around 2.7 percent of total voters, while in Bangladesh it has exceeded 3.5 percent, a figure he said could amount to a world record. He added that while postal voters would have an impact in every constituency, their influence would be especially critical in seats where the contest is closely fought and margins are narrow.

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