The US war with Iran has come to a temporary halt after an agreement was signed, with further negotiations expected to continue.
While President Donald Trump has claimed victory and highlighted what he described as the benefits of the deal, an assessment of the conflict’s impact reveals a more complicated picture, reports CNN.
“’YOU’RE WELCOME!” Trump wrote on Thursday in a post on his social media platform, where he also ticked through benefits of his memorandum of understanding to keep negotiating with Iran for the next 60 days.
“OIL IS FLOWING, IRAN CAN NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON (THE WORLD WILL BE SAFE!), THE STOCK MARKETS ARE ROARING, JOBS ARE AT RECORDS, AND PRICES ARE DROPPING (AFFORDABILITY!). OUR COUNTRY IS STRONG, SAFE, AND RESPECTED LIKE NEVER BEFORE,” Trump said.
However, figures from more than 100 days of conflict show a different economic and strategic reality. The war resulted in the deaths of 13 American service members and more than 7,500 civilians across the region.
Pentagon faces around $40 billion war cost
The US Department of Defense spent around $40 billion on the conflict, according to preliminary estimates from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The cost covers weapons, destroyed equipment and damage to military bases but excludes operational expenses already included in the Pentagon’s more than $1 trillion fiscal year 2026 budget, CSIS senior adviser Mark Cancian told CNN.
The Pentagon has requested $80 billion in additional funding, according to two US government sources. Less than $20 billion of that amount is linked to immediate costs from the Iran war, while the figure does not include expenses such as facility repairs and maintaining US bases in the region.
Weapons made up the largest expense
Munitions accounted for the biggest portion of the war cost, with around $26 billion spent on weapons, according to Cancian.
He said the military used a large number of expensive, advanced and long-range weapons.
A Tomahawk missile costs around $2.5 million, and the US used about 1,000 of them during the conflict.
The war also put pressure on America’s weapons stockpiles. Military experts and officials said the US used significant amounts of key missile supplies, prompting Trump to invoke the Defense Production Act in June to push defence companies to increase production.
The cost of the war slowed over time as strikes became less frequent and the use of expensive weapons declined.
CSIS estimated the first 100 hours of fighting cost $3.7 billion, while the total cost reached about $16.5 billion by the 12th day.
Other government agencies, including the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Veterans Affairs, faced additional costs of about $1 billion, with around $165 million linked to higher fuel prices.
Fuel prices remain a burden
The conflict pushed petrol prices higher, creating political pressure for Trump, whose administration has promoted increased fossil fuel production.
Although the US remains the world’s leading oil and gas producer, global markets determine energy prices. The average US petrol price increased from below $3 per gallon before the war to above $4 during much of the conflict.
With oil shipments expected to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, prices are likely to decline, but experts say the reduction will take time. The national average stood at $3.97 per gallon on Friday, after falling below $4 for the first time since March 30.
According to Brown University’s energy cost tracker, American households have spent more than $253 extra due to higher energy costs linked to the war.
Diesel prices hit farmers and transport sector
The impact was also felt through diesel prices, affecting farmers and shipping companies.
Diesel averaged about $3.80 per gallon before the conflict but rose above $5 by June 15, although it had fallen from earlier wartime levels.
Brown University’s tracker estimated that higher diesel costs forced Americans to spend nearly $27.1 billion more. The war also increased fertiliser prices, creating potential long-term pressure on agriculture.
US oil reserves fall to lowest level since 1983
America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve has dropped to its lowest level since 1983.
The emergency oil stockpile, stored in salt caverns along the Gulf Coast, was reduced during the Biden administration following Russia’s war in Ukraine and later during Trump’s conflict with Iran.
Global oil supply lost more than 1 billion barrels
The disruption in Middle Eastern oil supplies lasted nearly four months, reducing global availability by about 1.15 billion barrels, according to Kpler.
Countries turned to alternative sources, with Venezuela and Brazil increasing production. The US supplied jet fuel to Europe and diesel to Australia, while the Trump administration removed sanctions on hundreds of millions of barrels of Russian and Iranian oil.
Meanwhile, 32 countries coordinated the largest emergency oil stockpile release in history. Even that was insufficient, forcing oil companies to rely on their own reserves.
Cushing oil hub faces pressure
A major US oil storage and distribution centre in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached a critical operational level.
The US Energy Information Administration reported that Cushing had only 20 million barrels of oil remaining in storage last week. Trump acknowledged the concern during the G7 meeting in Versailles.
“You want to see bedlam?” Trump said. “We run out of reserves in about four weeks.”
Inflation remains elevated
Trump has faced challenges defending his economic record as prices increased during the conflict.
He previously dismissed concerns over affordability and later said, “I love the inflation,” arguing the situation could have been worse and that prices would fall sharply once the war ended.
However, economists distinguish between inflation slowing and prices actually declining.
Annual inflation recently exceeded 4% for the first time in three years, driven partly by higher energy costs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Although below pandemic-era peaks, the rate remains twice the level the Federal Reserve generally targets before cutting interest rates.
Higher inflation also contributed to the Fed’s decision not to reduce rates, despite Trump’s preference for lower borrowing costs.
Prices have also increased faster than average wage growth. This meant inflation erased pay gains for many Americans in April and May, the first time this had happened since 2023.
Consumer confidence improves slightly
American consumer confidence showed some improvement in June after three consecutive monthly declines, according to a University of Michigan survey.
However, sentiment remained significantly below historical averages, with concerns extending beyond the Iran war and reflecting broader economic uncertainty.
Stock markets remain strong, but bonds weaken
US stock markets initially declined after the conflict began but later recovered, allowing Trump to continue pointing to market performance as evidence of economic strength.
Despite concerns over inflation and fuel costs, investors remained confident, supported partly by major initial public offerings involving companies such as SpaceX and artificial intelligence firms.
Bond markets, however, weakened as inflation concerns pushed yields higher. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield reached its highest level in more than a year in May before easing.
The yield affects borrowing costs for consumers, including credit cards, car loans and home mortgages.
Mortgage rates remain high
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell slightly to 6.47% last week from 6.52%, which was close to the year’s highest level, according to Freddie Mac.
Higher bond yields have kept mortgage rates elevated, limiting access to the housing market for many Americans.
Markets now expect the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates later this year, potentially putting further pressure on mortgage costs.
Trump approval rating remains weak
Trump’s approval rating has remained below 40 per cent, continuing a decline that began before the Iran conflict.
According to CNN’s Poll of Polls, 38 per cent of Americans approved of his job performance in February, while the figure stood at 37 per cent on 15 June.
A recent Fox News poll showed that only 31 per cent of registered voters approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 35 per cent approved of his handling of Iran.
