Behind the national fish hilsa’s iconic status — so deeply tied to Bangladesh’s culture and cuisine — lies a riddle that has baffled both economists and consumers: if production has soared over the past decade, why have prices climbed beyond the reach of ordinary people?
The government’s own figures appear to deepen that mystery. Between 2013–14 and 2023–24, hilsa production reportedly jumped from 385,000 to 529,000 metric tonnes — an increase of nearly 37%. In theory, greater supply should drive prices down; in practice, the country’s most beloved fish has turned into a luxury item.
The price data tell the same story. Figures from the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB) show that a one-kilogram hilsa that cost Tk1,040 a decade ago now sells for around Tk 2,000, while smaller fish have nearly tripled in price. In Dhaka markets this year, a single one-kilogram hilsa fetched as much as Tk2,600.
The paradox of plenty
The contradiction has triggered growing suspicion about the way Bangladesh’s fisheries authorities count the national fish. People involved in hilsa fishing for over three decades say that the government’s production data do not match their real-life experience. As large sums of public money are spent each year on hilsa conservation, they believe the reporting of production figures has become entangled in bureaucratic manipulation.
“The figures don’t match reality,” said Abdul Bari Jamadar Manik, president of the Chandpur Fish Traders’ Cooperative Association. “No one from the fisheries office collects data from us. They just send estimates to Dhaka. We don’t know how those are made.”
In some cases, the government even reports hilsa catches in rivers where the fish have long disappeared. “They say there’s hilsa in the Dhanagoda River in Chandpur,” Manik added. “But there are none.”
For fishermen, traders and analysts, such inconsistencies raise questions about whether the glowing success stories around hilsa production are as solid as the data make them appear.
How the numbers are made
To find out how hilsa production figures are compiled, TIMES of Bangladesh visited several areas designated as hilsa sanctuaries — protected zones meant to ensure sustainable fishing. The inquiry found a patchwork system of data collection that varies widely from place to place, with little consistency or verification.
Some officers rely on random sampling, some on interviews with local traders or fishermen, and others simply estimate production based on the number of boats operating in a given area. In some cases, a few large wholesalers provide the numbers that go on to represent entire districts.
“There’s no single method,” said a fisheries officer in Barishal, requesting anonymity. “Sometimes we take figures from traders, sometimes from boat owners. We can’t visit every landing point.”
Firoz Ahmed, deputy director of the Hilsa Management Division of the Department of Fisheries, acknowledged the process’s dependence on field-level reports. “Upazila fisheries officers send in their data,” he said. “We combine those to create the national total.”
Inside the collection process
At the local level, the collection routine is a mix of manual note-taking, phone calls and digital entries.
In Charfesson, Bhola, senior fisheries officer Jayanta Kumar Apu said that hilsa data are updated through software. “We have enumerators who collect daily data from landing stations,” he said. “We also verify some of it ourselves. But it’s impossible to cover every location.”
Elsewhere, the process is even more informal. “No one comes to collect hilsa data. Fisheries officers visit a couple of times during the season, talk to a few people, and leave after preparing a rough estimate,” said Aminul Islam Tuhin Hawlader of Bakshi Fish Terminal in Bhola.
Trader and trawler owner Bashi Soudagar of Cox’s Bazar, who has been involved in the business for four decades, described how the local fisheries office holds meetings “once or twice a year” with industry representatives. “They invite us, give Tk 500 as honorarium, serve snacks, and ask for some fishing information.”
The officials’ defence
Officials insist that the process, while imperfect, provides a reasonably accurate picture.
“We collect data from major landing points and a few smaller ones,” said Mirza Omar Faruk, senior fisheries officer of Chandpur Sadar. “We also cross-check with several fishermen and traders.”
In Patuakhali’s Kalapara, senior officer Apu Saha said his team tracks both the number of boats and the average catch per boat. “Our staff gather data from traders and cross-check it with field observations. We then prepare a consolidated estimate.”
Another official in Cox’s Bazar, Sujay Pal, said that data from the Sustainable Coastal and Marine Fisheries Project supplement local figures. “We talk to boatmen, traders, and managers of landing centres to get a broader picture,” he said.
Yet several officers requesting anonymity admitted that sampling covers only about five percent of landing points or major traders. The rest, they said, is extrapolated based on previous years’ figures and current market trends — a system that leaves wide margins for error.
Counting the cost
Experts say such inconsistencies matter because hilsa is a big industry that impacts a huge number of consumers as well as a large number of fishing families.
But when production figures are inflated or poorly recorded, policy decisions — from fishing bans to export quotas — risk being based on faulty data. That in turn affects fishermen’s livelihoods, price stability and long-term conservation efforts.
For now, the numbers tell one story, the markets another. Despite claims of rising supply, the price of hilsa continues to climb, pushing it out of reach for ordinary consumers.
