Despite persistent global efforts to curb carbon pollution, emissions from fossil fuels have continued to climb for yet another year- undermining hopes for an imminent peak in global warming.
For years, scientists, policymakers, and environmental advocates have been anticipating a turning point- the year when carbon emissions from coal, oil, and natural gas would finally stop rising. That moment, however, remains elusive.
According to new findings released on Wednesday during the United Nations Climate Conference (COP30) in Belem, Brazil, global carbon emissions from fossil fuel increased by 1.1% in 2025.
Although this marks one of the smallest annual increases outside of the pandemic years, experts warn that the continued upward trend poses a serious obstacle to achieving global temperature targets.
“It’s disappointing that we haven’t brought down carbon dioxide emissions,” said Professor Stephen Sitch of the University of Exeter, a member of the Global Carbon Project (GCP). The GCP compiles global datasets to estimate yearly carbon emissions, which are then published in scientific journals.
His colleague Glen Peters from Norway’s CICERO Center for International Climate Research described the trend as “relentless.”
Warming trajectory signals grim outlook
A separate analysis by Climate Action Tracker (CAT) painted an equally concerning picture. The group assessed how current policies and this year’s emissions will influence future global warming trends- and found little improvement in the past four years.
In fact, the report noted that certain policy reversals under US President Donald Trump’s administration this year have contributed slightly to increased warming projections.
“Unless there’s a change in political momentum, we’re going to cook. There’s no doubt about it,” warned Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics and one of the report’s lead authors.
The CAT report estimates that the planet is now on course for approximately 2.6°C (4.7°F) of warming above pre-industrial levels- marginally lower than last year’s projection of 2.7°C (4.9°F). However, most of that adjustment resulted from refined calculations related to China’s emissions data, rather than any substantial policy progress.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations committed to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels- a goal now appearing increasingly out of reach.
CAT also analysed the latest climate commitments submitted by countries ahead of the COP30 summit. Based on these pledges, the world could still face a 2.2°C (4°F) temperature increase-slightly warmer than estimates from a year ago.
“Much of that is the effect of Trump’s dismantling of American pollution-fighting efforts,” explained Ana Missirliu of the NewClimate Institute, another co-author of the study.
While delegates in Belem acknowledged progress in climate action, they admitted that this year’s emission figures were deeply concerning. “When I hear that emissions are still going up, I’m truly troubled,” said Jennifer Morgan, former German climate negotiator.
Fossil fuel emissions pour out at alarming rates
The Global Carbon Project projected that burning fossil fuels and producing cement will emit about 42 billion tons (38.1 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide in 2025- equivalent to roughly 2.7 million pounds (1.2 million kilograms) of heat-trapping gases released into the atmosphere every second.
That figure is more than double the emissions recorded in 1983.
Still, there are pockets of progress. According to Sitch, 35 countries managed to cut their fossil fuel emissions while maintaining economic growth. Yet the US, once on a declining trajectory, saw its emissions rise by 2% in 2025 compared to 2024.
China’s emissions remained steady, sparking cautious optimism that the world’s largest emitter may have reached its peak.
Meanwhile, aviation-related carbon output increased by 6.8% year-on-year, the report added.
Encouragingly, a significant drop in emissions from deforestation and land-use changes partially offset the rise in fossil fuel pollution. Taken together, Earth’s overall emissions in 2025 remained roughly the same as the previous year.
Still, as the world’s climate negotiators deliberate deep in the Amazon, the message from scientists is clear: the planet’s carbon clock is still ticking- and the time to act is running out.
