Bangladesh’s benchmark DSEX is expected to range between 4,600 and 5,800 points in 2026, as the stock market looks set for a recovery from the current bottom, said EBL Securities Research.
The anticipated rebound would be supported by emerging political clarity and improving macroeconomic conditions following a prolonged downturn, from over 7,200 in October 2021 to 4,865 on 30 December 2025, said the brokerage firm’s analysts.
On the monetary front, the report said liquidity conditions are likely to ease as the central bank moves towards cutting interest rates, a shift expected to accelerate private sector credit growth and revive subdued capital investment.
Lower interest rates could help lift corporate profitability and restore business confidence, supporting broader market participation throughout the year.
The brokerage also expects a supportive fiscal stance, with the elected government likely to align fiscal policy with monetary easing to strengthen economic growth momentum.
Political clarity, greater regulatory certainty and currently attractive valuation levels are expected to draw fresh investment into equities, helping build positive momentum across the capital market, the report said.
Alongside the index outlook, EBL Securities forecast average daily turnover to hover between Tk600 crore and Tk800 crore in 2026, pointing to a gradual recovery in trading activity.
Real GDP, after slowing to 3.97 per cent in the 2024–25 fiscal year, is forecast by the World Bank to rebound to 4.8 per cent in FY26, while the government is targeting 5.5 per cent.
EBL Securities highlighted that inflation is expected to ease to 7 per cent after remaining elevated at an annual average of 8.8 per cent in 2025 and 10.3 per cent in 2024.
The annual average yield of the 10-year government bond is forecast to decline to 9.5 per cent in 2026 from 10.9 per cent in 2025 and 12.6 per cent in 2024, reflecting expectations of monetary easing.
Foreign exchange reserves under the BPM-6 framework are projected to rise to $32 billion in 2026 from $28.1 billion at the end of 2025, which had sharply rebounded from $21.4 billion at the end of 2024.
EBL Securities also projected the Taka to weaken gradually, with the dollar exchange rate seen at Tk124 in 2026 compared with Tk122 in 2025 and Tk120 in 2024.
