Bangladesh must act decisively to sustain the country’s export growth, particularly due to the sharp decline in shipments to the United States (US), according to industry people.
Citing how China has maintained its export growth in face of the same challenge, they stressed the importance of export diversification, product upgradation and proactive policymaking.
Chinese companies shifted their focus to other destinations soon after America introduced reciprocal tariffs as it aimed to offset a nearly 30 per cent decrease in US shipments.
As such, China’s exports to markets in the European Union (EU) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) grew by about 15 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively.
China also altered in product base by decreasing the volume of labour-intensive goods, such as toys, footwear and furniture targeting US buyers, while increasing that of high-value items like semiconductors and automobiles.
These moves were reinforced by favourable domestic policies, including stimulus packages, easy financing and strategic support for priority sectors, along with a push to boost domestic consumption.
As a result, China maintained export growth of 5.4 per cent throughout 2025 and posted a trade surplus of roughly $1 trillion for the first time.
“China’s experience shows that resilience does not come from dependence on a single market or product,” said Mohiuddin Rubel, former director of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA).
“Instead, it stems from diversification – of markets, products and capabilities,” he added.
Bangladesh remains heavily reliant on garment exports, with the sector contributing more than 80 per cent of the country’s total export earnings. Besides, most Bangladesh’s apparel shipments are still absorbed by the US and EU.
So, although garment exports have helped deliver decades of growth, continued reliance on this sector leaves the economy exposed to external shocks such as protectionist measures and slower demand.
Rubel also noted that Vietnam offers a closer, more comparable example for Bangladesh than China.
“Vietnam deliberately moved beyond basic apparel into higher value-added garments, electronics and machinery,” he said. “That did not happen overnight as it required policy consistency, skills development and investment in technology.”
Against this backdrop, economists argue that Bangladesh must now accelerate a similar transition to stay competitive.
While apparel will remain central in the near term, the focus needs to shift toward higher-end garments, manmade fibres, technical textiles and design-led products, they said.
Furthermore, the development of non-garment sectors such as electronics assembly, light engineering, pharmaceuticals and agri-processing should also be prioritised.
According to experts, the need for market diversification is equally urgent.
This is because over-dependence on the US leaves exporters vulnerable to tariff changes and political uncertainty.
So, expanding trade with ASEAN countries, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America could provide buffers, especially as global supply chains continue to reconfigure.
Likewise, policy support is critical, with industry people pointing to the need for easier access to long-term finance, targeted incentives for technology upgradation, and stronger support for research and development.
Also, improving the country’s logistics infrastructure, energy reliability and port efficiency would help local firms compete in higher-value segments.
“There is no shortcut,” Rubel said. “If Bangladesh wants to move up the value chain, we must invest in skills, innovation and productivity.
“At the same time, the government must actively support strategic industries, just as China did, while stimulating domestic demand to reduce over-reliance on exports,” he added.
The former BGMEA director further said that as Bangladesh approaches its status graduation from least developed country, its preferential market access will gradually diminish and thereby make increasing competitiveness even more critical.
So, China’s experience suggests that adaptation, not complacency, is the key to sustaining growth in a more uncertain global trading environment.
“For Bangladesh, the choice is clear: diversify now or risk stagnation later,” Rubel added.
