Bangladesh is likely to experience flooding in the Brahmaputra and Meghna river basins in July and August this year due to heavy rainfall in upstream catchment areas, according to the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC).
“Bangladesh remains vulnerable to flooding in July and August due to climatic conditions. During this period, heavy rainfall in major river basins and upstream regions often triggers flood situations in the country,” said Sarder Udoy Raihan, Executive Engineer at the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB).
He noted that a flood situation is likely in the Brahmaputra and Meghna basins during the mid-monsoon period.
Historical records show that this phase of the monsoon has often produced Bangladesh’s most severe floods. In 1988, extreme rainfall between August and September inundated around 82,000 square kilometres—nearly 60 per cent of the country. In 1998, a prolonged flood lasting over two months in July and August killed more than 1,000 people and displaced or stranded around 30 million.
Experts say the greatest risk arises when peak flows in the Brahmaputra and Meghna coincide. In 2004, such synchronisation submerged nearly 30,000 square kilometres in the northeast. More recently, floods in 2022 and 2024 affected over 13 million people, highlighting the growing impact of upstream rainfall.
Raihan said the FFWC can currently issue flood forecasts up to 10–15 days in advance for inland river basins and up to three days for coastal rivers.
On the present situation, he said low-lying areas in the Brahmaputra basin are already experiencing flooding, though water levels are expected to stabilise within five to six days. The Meghna basin, he added, is likely to remain stable in the coming days due to a lack of heavy rainfall in upstream areas.
He also warned that a low-pressure system may form over the Bay of Bengal later this month, which could trigger sudden flooding in coastal low-lying areas.
According to an FFWC forecast issued on Thursday, water levels in the Brahmaputra–Jamuna system have declined over the past 24 hours but are expected to rise again over the next four days before stabilising on the fifth day.
Between July 4 and 7, the Brahmaputra–Jamuna rivers may flow at warning level in Kurigram, Gaibandha, Jamalpur and Bogura, with nearby low-lying areas at risk of inundation.
Water levels in the Ganges–Padma system are expected to continue rising over the next five days, though they are likely to remain below danger level.
Meanwhile, the Surma–Kushiyara (Upper Meghna) rivers may continue to flow at warning level for the next 72 hours in Sylhet and Sunamganj, with adjacent low-lying areas remaining vulnerable to flooding.
At present, the Teesta at Dalia (Nilphamari) and Tarapur (Lalmonirhat), the Kushiyara at Fenchuganj (Sylhet) and Markuli (Sunamganj), and the Someshwari at Kolmakanda (Netrokona) are all flowing at warning levels.
