The aspect of stability has been central to international relations, even though uncertainty is an emerging reality in world politics. The modern world order is failing due to long-term wars and conflicts on the political and geopolitical fronts, as well as supply chain issues and food insecurity. The emergence of China as a nation that may be relied upon in this case is not just a piece of diplomatic history, but also a pointer to the type of state, economic reliability, and a favourable foreign policy perspective. As the world is marked with uncertainty, China is coming out as a location of predictability and stability, a location to be when everything is uncertain.
Among the urgent problems facing the global community currently under active discussion is energy security. The supply chain and costs, particularly in the Middle East, have been volatile due to wars, which have imposed massive obligations on energy-importing nations. In this case, China has found itself able to sustain its energy policy to a massive level. Diversified sourcing, strategic reserves, and long-term planning have enabled China to hedge against the greatest impact of global shocks. Such stability is not accidental; it is entrenched in a state machine that embraces foresight, coordination, and execution.
The first concept of predictability in the Chinese case is the policy continuity and the efficiency of the institutions. The fourth session of the 14th National People’s Congress has seen the introduction of the National Development Planning Law, a giant stride towards further institutionalising the Chinese model of development. Integrating long-term planning is part of the legislation, which has boosted China’s investments in science-based policymaking and delivery. This move has received significant international publicity, and most observers note that a system established by China has already been tested and proven effective over the decades.
Indeed, the Chinese tendency to develop the country is marked by a peculiar approach to long-term planning. The country has been experiencing a systematic pattern of economic and social development from the First Five-Year Plan to the current 15th Five-Year Plan. Natural and cultural stability also provides a sense of comfort to both domestic and foreign countries. The ability of China to honour its commitments is a certainty to the international investors and partners in their endeavours. This is one of the few and valued aspects of reliability in a world where policy reversals and political instability are the norm.
Stability, which is inherent in China’s foreign policy, is also essential. As the world’s political sphere becomes increasingly polarised, China has been reported to have continued its non-violent growth and foreign collaboration. It nevertheless encourages the establishment of a community with a common future with the rest of humanity, a notion that supports the collective well-being of individuals. This is unlike power politics and unilateralism, which have depicted tension in the world on numerous occasions.
Another crucial fact about China’s predictability is its stance on hegemony. On numerous occasions, China has stated that it will never take the path of expansion, as was the case in the past, when the ascending powers sought supremacy. Instead, it has created an equal and well-structured multipolar world, where every nation, regardless of size or strength, has representation in global governance. This vision is similar to that of most developing countries, which seek a more inclusive and representative international system.
Besides, there is the philosophy of extensive consultation, reciprocity, and the common good, which can be observed in the Chinese theory of international governance. This will be a fair step towards making China a good player in the reform of international institutions, as it will inculcate equality, justice, transparency, and inclusiveness. The cooperation area that China has given priority to offers a realistic solution in a world where existing forms of governance are most likely poorly designed to meet new challenges, such as climate change and energy transitions.
The predictability of Chinese economic development is another aspect that has emerged. It is the Chinese economy that has been enjoying a stable growth of approximately 5.4 per cent over the past five years and has contributed approximately 30 per cent to the global economic growth. The reason is that China is one of the driving forces of the global economy, and this stable performance is a testament to that. China has been able to sustain growth even during periods of contraction, when the world was shrinking, thereby stabilising global markets.
The five-year plan outline for the 15th implies a big-picture vision for high-quality development, which is encouraging. The emphasis on the creation of new productive forces and the strengthening of digital and intelligent transformation, as well as the growth of high-standard opening-up, are signs of the changes China is ready to make to adapt to the international context. With a focus on innovation and sustainability, China is also concerned not only with improving the domestic economy but also with exploring new possibilities for collaboration with other countries.
Notably, China’s development has increasingly involved the interests of the world. China is increasingly part of the global economy as a result of efforts to foster connectivity, trade, and investment. Such interdependence makes one dependent on the other and creates mutual interest in stability. The engagement of most countries with China introduces them to the market and to China’s technological and infrastructural potential, which is crucial for their growth in a volatile global economy.
However, we cannot assess China’s significance as a stable partner outside the broader geopolitical context. There is still a sense of suspicion and the manoeuvre of outshining the other, particularly among great powers. Nonetheless, in such a competitive environment, the need for stability and predictability is unanimous. In this regard, China’s stability, whether in policy, development, or diplomacy, can be considered a vulnerability to instability.
Finally, because the international order is radically changing, the cost of reliability cannot be overestimated. The fact that China has provided predictability through stable governance, carried out long-term planning, and taken on responsible international action makes it a vital player in managing contemporary issues. The world is going to be ambiguous, but the inclination to stability and unremitting development, with the emphasis on cooperation as one of the most important aspects that China offers, is something to be sure of. The role of China in the world, as a trusted partner, will become even more topical and well-known.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of the authors’ own
The writer is a Zijiang Visiting Scholar, the Academy of History and Documentation of Socialism, East China Normal University (ECNU), Shanghai, China. Email: [email protected]
