Democrat victories in both chambers of the US Congress could make it harder for President Donald Trump to impose new trade restrictions, offering Bangladesh’s garment exporters the prospect of a more predictable trading environment.
But the political shift is unlikely to bring immediate relief from existing tariffs, experts said.
Trump remains in office for another two years, but his economic and trade policies are expected to face greater congressional scrutiny.
Democrats could use hearings, investigations and legislative oversight to raise the political cost of sudden restrictions, although they cannot automatically reverse tariffs imposed under powers already granted to the president.
The stakes are high for Bangladesh. The US is its largest single export destination, accounting for roughly one-fifth of garment exports and supporting export earnings, industrial growth and employment.
Under a reciprocal trade arrangement announced in February 2026, Washington agreed to reduce the tariff rate on Bangladeshi goods to 19 per cent, with zero tariffs on certain textile and apparel products subject to specified conditions.
Subsequent changes have complicated the outlook. Bangladeshi goods, like those from Indonesia, India, Cambodia and Pakistan, now face a total duty of 25.6 per cent, including an additional 10 per cent on top of regular import duties.
Exporters should not expect the additional charge to disappear after the change in congressional control, particularly when planning 2027 orders. The president retains substantial executive authority over trade policy under existing legislation, limiting Congress’s ability to deliver immediate tariff relief.
The uncertainty has coincided with declining shipments. Bangladesh’s apparel export value to the US fell 6.50 per cent year-on-year in January–July 2026, while shipment volume dropped 4.34 per cent and average export prices declined 2.26 per cent.
Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), said Trump’s midterm setback reflected American voters’ dissatisfaction with the tariffs imposed over the past two years.
“Other countries were not the only ones harmed by these unreasonable tariffs; American consumers and businesses also suffered the consequences,” he told TIMES.
Believing that the result has brought relief to international trading partners, Hatem said “New opportunities are emerging for Bangladesh to increase its exports to the US market. We hope the US government will take positive decisions that benefit all parties.”
A more stable trade policy could restore confidence among US buyers cautious about placing orders amid tariff changes. Predictability is particularly important for Bangladesh, whose exports to the market consist mainly of basic, relatively low-priced apparel.
Former Bangladesh Ambassador to Italy Md Shameem Ahsan said, “With another national election due in two years, Trump will have to consider the political consequences of his economic and trade policies. Imposing additional tariffs could adversely affect his party’s prospects in the next election.”
Ahsan said changes in the US political landscape could affect global financial markets, with spillover effects on Bangladesh.
Bangladesh should pursue policy predictability alongside efforts to secure lower tariffs, he remarked.
Mohiuddin Rubel, former director of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) and founder and CEO of Bangladesh Apparel Voice, said Democratic control of Congress would make it harder for the Trump administration to introduce additional tariffs, particularly measures requiring congressional approval.
Trump can still veto legislation, while existing tariffs rely on powers Congress granted the president through earlier laws. Rubel said the additional 10 per cent duty was imposed under Section 301 after the US Supreme Court cancelled the reciprocal tariffs and a temporary charge expired. Exporters should factor the duty into their 2027 order planning rather than expect it to disappear soon.
Although Democrats campaigned against tariffs, their control of Congress would not prevent the administration from acting under existing executive powers. If Congress blocks new legislation, the White House could act more independently, Rubel said.
He identified a possible US Trade Representative (USTR) investigation into excess production capacity, which names Bangladesh, as a significant risk.
Rubel also identified the duty-free quota facility for garments made with US-origin cotton and synthetic fibres as an opportunity for Bangladeshi manufacturers and American fibre producers. Established by the president without congressional approval, the facility is likely to remain in place, he said.
The facility covers specified products, is subject to volume restrictions and runs for three years. It removes only the additional 10 per cent duty, not regular US import duties and could align with Democrats’ interest in reducing forced labour in supply chains.
Rubel said tariffs targeting forced labour would be difficult for Democrats to oppose and were, therefore, likely to remain.
He expects closer scrutiny of labour rights, wage standards, supply-chain transparency and the origins of cotton and other raw materials. Bangladesh lost its US Generalised System of Preferences benefits in 2013 over labour rights and workplace safety concerns. Although the suspension did not directly cover the country’s main garment exports, it remains as a warning about the importance of compliance.
“Bangladeshi exporters should increase the use of US-origin fibres, maintain proper documentation of their supply chains and treat compliance as a basic condition for doing business in the US market,” maintains Rubel.
He said congressional pressure to calm the Iran war could help reduce shipping costs. War-risk charges have ranged from $2,000 to $4,000 per container.
However, weak US demand and buyers’ pressure to lower prices could have a greater effect on Bangladesh’s exports than which party controls Congress, he warned.
Asif Ibrahim, former president of the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry and former director of BGMEA, said the election presented both opportunities and challenges.
Greater congressional scrutiny could make trade policy more predictable, while improved market access could support export earnings, employment, foreign exchange reserves and investor confidence.
But Democratic lawmakers could also press for stronger labour rights, better workplace and environmental standards, and responsible sourcing.
Bangladesh would need to accelerate reforms, improve productivity and strengthen its competitiveness in global supply chains, he said.
Congressional control does not automatically guarantee tariff reductions, Ibrahim said, adding, “Bangladesh should maintain balanced economic diplomacy with both political parties while prioritising export diversification, investment facilitation and structural reforms.”
Ultimately, sustainable economic resilience must rest on strong institutions, industrial competitiveness and sound domestic policies – not political shifts in Washington,” he observed.
