As Americans prepare to vote in the 3 November midterm elections, Donald Trump’s second presidency is approaching a critical political test. Less than two years after returning to the White House with a decisive electoral victory, the president is facing growing dissatisfaction over the economy, the direction of his administration and its foreign policy. Yet the Republicans’ vulnerability does not necessarily translate into an easy victory for Democrats, who continue to struggle to establish a convincing alternative.
The elections will determine control of both chambers of Congress and, consequently, how much political room Trump will have during the final two years of his presidency. More importantly, they will test whether the coalition that brought him back to power remains intact, and whether the Democratic Party can turn public discontent into a sustainable electoral advantage.
Trump’s 2024 victory was built on an unusual coalition of voters whose motivations did not always align. Working-class Americans, frustrated with the rising cost of living, younger voters dissatisfied with the political establishment, Latino voters concerned about economic opportunities and conservative Republicans united behind his promise to reshape American politics.
And of course: no new wars and releasing the Epstein files.
However, electoral coalitions are easier to assemble during campaigns than to maintain in government. To such an extent has Trump grown to embody the swamp that he had promised to drain that the Republican coalition cracking under the weight of its own incompetence and greed. The different groups that supported Trump are now confronting the consequences of his policy decisions, and Trump has decided to take whatever remaining expectations they have and shoot them out of a giant cannon into the Atlantic Ocean (or, Trump Ocean, as he would’ve preferred to name it).
Polling in the run-up to the elections suggests that Trump’s approval rating has fallen into the 29-35 per cent range, while only around a quarter of Americans approve of his handling of inflation. As such, the problem for Trump is almost ubiquitous in nature, and unless someone has been wholly seduced by the cult-like nature of MAGA, problems for Republicans this year round stem from every angle, from every direction.
His tariff policies have added another dimension to the problem. While the administration has presented tariffs as a means of protecting American industries and strengthening domestic production, businesses and consumers face the possibility of higher costs. For working-class voters who supported Trump partly because of his economic promises, the distinction between protecting American industry and increasing household expenses have become almost impossible to reconcile.
Immigration, another defining issue of his political comeback, also presents a complicated picture. Although stricter border controls remain popular among many conservative voters, aggressive enforcement and mass deportation policies have generated concerns about their economic and social consequences. Businesses dependent on immigrant labour have faced severe disruptions, while the administration’s brutal approach vis-à-vis ICE has severely alienated voters who had previously supported extended border security to some extent.
All talk, no action
For Democrats, Republican vulnerability presents an opportunity. However, the party faces a problem of its own: it has struggled to translate opposition to Trump into a coherent political programme capable of attracting voters beyond its traditional support base. But that’s being generous.
For true anti-establishment folks, radicalised by an ongoing genocide in Palestine, Democrat Party rhetoric has been infused with compromises and campaigning with war criminals (such as Barack Obama and Kamala Harris in Michigan). The gulf is primarily noticeable between leftists and liberals, with the former demanding material changes on the policy level and the latter more or less satisfied by simply winning (“vote blue no matter who” comes to mind).
More importantly, Democrats have yet to demonstrate convincingly that they understand the economic frustrations that helped Trump regain the presidency. Criticising his administration’s policies may attract voters already opposed to him, but it does not necessarily address the concerns of working-class Americans who feel left behind by successive administrations, with candidates often loyal to the same corporate donors and AIPAC.
The midterms could reveal whether Democrats have begun to overcome this problem. A Republican setback would indicate that Trump’s governing record has become a liability, but it would not necessarily demonstrate that Democrats have regained the confidence of the electorate.
Foreign policy is domestic policy
As has been mentioned before, Foucault’s imperial boomerang ensures that the American empire’s forays and intrusions in global affairs come back to haunt it on the much venerated homeland, regardless of the fact that it has been protected by oceans on both sides of its borders since its inception. Meaning: foreign policy increasingly has domestic political consequences.
Trump’s supporters were attracted partly by his promise to put American interests first and avoid unnecessary foreign entanglements. However, the administration’s international decisions have created tensions that extend beyond diplomatic circles, further buttressed by his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, whose corrupt dealings in the Middle East are as blatant and grotesque in nature as they come.
The Iran conflict and continuing instability surrounding the Ukraine war (which he promised to end in a single day) have raised questions about the financial and strategic costs of American involvement overseas.
These issues matter because they throw out the window the distinction Trump has attempted to establish between his domestic and international priorities.
The November 3 elections will ultimately determine whether Democrats can regain control of Congress and revive the illusion of checks and balances on Trump’s presidency. A Democratic-controlled House could intensify congressional investigations, scrutinise executive decisions and make it more difficult for the administration to advance its legislative priorities but, at the end of the day, it is unlikely the Democrats will be much different from their Republican counterparts.
Never forget: the genocide began under a Democrat. And that says more than enough.
