Bangladesh’s recent easing in inflation is temporary and faces renewed risks from global conflict and energy shocks that could destabilise prices and the currency, the Planning Commission’s policy think tank General Economics Division (GED) said.
Headline inflation eased to 8.71 percent in March from 9.13 percent in February, driven by a 2.20 per cent decline in rice prices as boro harvest supplies entered the market.
The relief was nearly offset by a 15.11 percent increase in meat prices and persistent non-food inflation at 9.09 per cent, largely fuelled by higher energy costs.
“The current moderation in inflation is temporary,” GED said.
The agency warned that Middle East tensions and rising global energy prices remain key risks that could trigger a renewed inflationary spiral and put pressure on the exchange rate.
Foreign exchange reserves rose to $34.12 billion in March, supported by remittance inflows of $3.76 billion, up from $3.30 billion a year earlier, providing a buffer against external stress.
The fiscal position remains under strain as the National Board of Revenue (NBR) collected Tk33,521 crore in March against a Tk53,290 crore target, leaving a 37 percent shortfall.
Government borrowing from the banking sector surged 29.61 percent year-on-year in February, the highest in five months, reflecting increased financing needs linked to energy costs.
Exports contracted 18.07 percent in March, pointing to weakening global demand and domestic supply constraints.
Annual Development Programme (ADP) implementation slowed as expenditure declined to Tk75,607 crore from Tk82,894 crore year-on-year.
Real household income remains under pressure as wage growth of 8.09 per cent continues to lag behind inflation.
Any further currency depreciation or increase in energy prices could quickly erode the modest gains seen in early 2026, leaving policymakers to balance stabilisation efforts with narrowing the revenue gap.
