Despite a four-year streak of inflation hovering around 10% and soaring input costs, farmers in northern Bangladesh face a harsh economic squeeze as paddy prices have fallen by Tk100 per maund compared with last year.
Known as one of the country’s primary grain reserves, Naogaon is home to numerous rice mills that supply a significant share of the national demand for rice.
While the local economy relies heavily on both paddy and mango cultivation, with mango production having expanded fivefold over the past decade, farmers say further expansion has stalled. Their deepest disappointment, however, lies with this season’s paddy crop, which has yielded little profit despite an excellent harvest.
According to the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), Boro paddy was cultivated on 192,477 hectares in the district this season, with a production target of approximately 870,065 tonnes.
Farmers reported strong yields of 22 to 24 maunds per bigha. Yet market prices have fallen well below expectations and continue to decline.
“This season, the price of paddy is about Tk100 less per maund than last year,” said Rubel Hossain, a farmer from Barshail village in Naogaon Sadar upazila. “Because of this, I sold only a small amount and stored the rest.”
Lamenting that farmers are consistently deprived of fair returns, Rubel added, “It has become incredibly difficult to sustain a household on paddy cultivation alone. The government must pay special attention to the agricultural sector and the welfare of farmers.”
The issue has also taken on a political dimension. Ahead of the 12 February election, the BNP promised fair prices for agricultural produce in its manifesto. However, for the first time in a decade, the BNP government has kept the procurement price of paddy unchanged at Tk36 per kg, despite DAE data showing that production costs are significantly higher this year.
Data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) highlights the broader economic strain. Overall inflation rose to a 16-month high of 9.42% in May. Bangladesh has been grappling with persistently high inflation since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and has yet to fully recover.
Agricultural economist Professor Jahangir Alam Khan told TIMES of Bangladesh that while rice prices have not officially fallen compared with last year, they have failed to keep pace with soaring production costs. Driven by pricier inputs, higher wages and crop damage, particularly in the haor region, the per-unit production cost has risen significantly.
With the prices of seeds, fertilisers, pesticides, fuel and labour all rising sharply, farmers are left asking a frustrating question: why are paddy prices falling?
This season, farmers face a severe financial squeeze due to soaring production costs and declining paddy prices.
Rubel Hossain cultivated Jirashail paddy on six bighas, harvesting 22 maunds per bigha. Similarly, Hamidur Rahman of Manda upazila grew Swarna-5 on five bighas, achieving the same average yield. However, Hamidur noted that input costs, including fertiliser, irrigation, pesticides and labour, have risen to Tk18,000–20,000 per bigha.
At the current market rate of Tk1,210 per maund, his revenue stands at Tk26,620, leaving a meagre profit of Tk8,500 after expenses. The slim margin has left Hamidur wondering how he will finance the next Aman season while supporting his family.
Professor Jahangir criticised the government for failing to adjust prices accordingly, keeping them stagnant out of concerns about inflation. He questioned the logic behind the policy, asking why government salaries continue to rise while agricultural subsidies and budget allocations for fisheries, water resources and jute are shrinking.
“The government talks about agriculture but fails to prioritise it in the budget,” he said.
Market trends across Naogaon offer little relief. At Abadpukur Haat, Guti Swarna sells for Tk1,160 per maund, Swarna-5 for Tk1,210, Miniket for Tk1,600 and Katari for Tk1,500. At Chakgori Haat, Jirashail fetches Tk1,300–1,350 per maund, while Suphalta sells for Tk1,260–1,300.
Pradeep Kumar, a farmer from Raninagar, lamented that while the prices of everyday commodities continue to rise, paddy prices have fallen by Tk80 to Tk100 per maund, making cultivation increasingly unsustainable and forcing some growers to consider alternative livelihoods.
Compounding the crisis, small-scale farmers face systemic barriers in accessing the government procurement programme. Many are turned away by officials who cite excessive moisture content, prompting frustrated growers to abandon the scheme altogether. Instead, they are forced to sell cheaply to mill owners.
Farmers allege that millers operate as a syndicate to keep market rates artificially low, depriving growers of meaningful bargaining power.
Professor Jahangir also highlighted major flaws in the government’s procurement programme, noting that many farmers are rejected because of moisture-content requirements. To address the issue, he suggested introducing a tiered pricing system based on different moisture levels.
He also explained the disconnect between low paddy prices for farmers and high rice prices for consumers. Driven by immediate financial pressures, farmers often sell freshly harvested paddy at low prices. Chatal (drying yard) owners and millers’ agents purchase the grain, dry and store it, and later sell it at significantly higher prices.
“These business groups and syndicates manipulate the market by controlling supply and timing sales to maximise profits,” he said. “They sell processed rice at a premium to consumers and government warehouses, while small-scale growers are deprived of fair returns.”
Farhad Hossain Chakdar, general secretary of the Naogaon Rice Mill Owners Group, rejected allegations of market manipulation. He attributed the recent fall in paddy prices to abundant supply.
He explained that farmers are flooding the market in order to raise cash for the upcoming Aus season, although prices may rise later.
Historically, prices tend to increase only after smallholders have sold most of their stocks.
Paradoxically, while paddy prices have fallen for growers, retail rice prices have risen by around 8%.
Farmer leader Joynal Abedin Mukul told The Times of Bangladesh that growers continue to be undervalued. He argued that meaningful relief would require the government to purchase at least 40% of total production at prices linked to actual production costs.
Without such intervention, he warned, frustrated farmers could abandon agriculture altogether, potentially leading to food shortages and greater dependence on imports.
Offering an official perspective, Md Manzur Rahman, deputy director of the Naogaon Agricultural Extension Department, argued that timing is the primary issue.
He noted that selling immediately after harvest prevents farmers from securing better prices. Manzur emphasised that proper storage is essential, arguing that farmers who can hold their paddy for a few weeks are likely to secure significantly better returns.
