The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has kept Bangladesh’s economic growth forecast unchanged at 3.8% for the fiscal year 2024–2025 (FY25), consistent with its previous projection made in December 2023.
Despite the modest outlook for the current fiscal year, the global lender expects the country’s economy to rebound strongly, projecting 6.5% GDP growth in FY26.
In its latest World Economic Outlook, released on Tuesday, the multilateral lender also forecast that inflation in Bangladesh will remain elevated, averaging 10% in FY25.
This marks a slight improvement from its earlier estimate of 11% in December. The Washington-based lender anticipates inflation to ease significantly to 5.2% in FY26, offering some relief to consumers and policymakers.
Inflationary pressure in the economy continues to be a major concern, with high food and commodity prices eroding purchasing power. The IMF’s projections follow similar estimates made earlier this month by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), which forecast Bangladesh’s GDP to grow by 3.9% in FY25 and 5.1% in FY26.
The ADB also warned that average annual inflation could rise to 10.2% in FY25 before declining to 8% the following year.
The ADB attributed persistent inflation to several structural challenges, including inefficiencies in the market system, regulatory weaknesses, limited competition in wholesale markets, inadequate access to market data, and supply chain disruptions.
The depreciation of the Bangladeshi taka has also added pressure on import prices, further fuelling inflation.
Meanwhile, Bangladesh’s own fiscal expectations have been revised downward. In December 2023, the government lowered its GDP growth projection for FY25 to 5.25%, down from an earlier estimate of 6.75%.
The adjustment reflects the impact of a deepening financial crisis, sluggish business activity, and heightened political uncertainty following the recent change in government.
As the country navigates a turbulent economic environment, both multilateral agencies and national institutions are closely watching inflationary trends and growth potential.
While the IMF and ADB offer cautious optimism for medium-term recovery, they also underline the urgency of structural reforms to stabilise prices and restore economic momentum.