Almost all signs say that the US is going to send ground troops to Iran. This is because Iran wants to end the war on its own terms, not on US terms and conditions in such a way that Iran’s deterrent is re-established more firmly in the region. Everyone believes that Iran would become as the new security guarantor of the Middle East. But there are many ifs here. For example, Iran wants the US to remove all 17 of its bases from the Middle East. If this happens, Iran will not have regional influence.
Will the US accept this? Will it not accept it? Can Iran make concessions on this issue? What would be a better deal for them in that case? Anyway, the main condition for ending the war with Iran will be an international guarantee clause that there will be no more attacks in the future. This is where the key will be needed. In the views of the US and Israel, Iran has not been crippled.
Both Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman and the United Arab Emirates’ Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan are angry at Iran. Firstly, the US is communicating with Israel as if to end the war without destroying Iran’s capabilities. Secondly, the US is calculating the formation of a military alliance against Iran. These two are the biggest US allies in the region outside of Israel. So, Washington will be influenced by their words. The third point is that the US is almost fifth weeks into war. They still have no achievements to speak of. Of course, where there is no clear motive, there is no chance of achieving the goal. The fourth point is: what does it mean to bring in an additional 20,000 troops in addition to the 50,000 troops already in the Middle East? Of these, 17,000 are American and about 3,000 are Israeli. Of these US 17,000 troops, 5,000 are Marines, and 2,000 are paratroopers. And the rest are specially prepared for ground operations.
Now the question is when will they land? A simple approximate answer to this is hidden in Trump’s ultimatum. Trump has postponed attacks on the country’s energy and power installations until April 6 in order to continue negotiations with Iran. The US Marine unit that departed from San Diego, California, may take until the third week of April to reach the Iranian coast or the Middle East via Diego Garcia. This unit has about 3,000 Marines and some other sailors. The 10,000 additional ground troops that are being sent from the US would take a few hours if sent by air. And if sent by ship, it would take at least two weeks. That too if the troops are on the East Coast. The unit that left from Japan is expected to arrive any time this week. An Israeli brigade called Ha-Esh is ready to join the operation.
So, if all the coordination, target selection, and the desire to conduct the operation together are in place, the United States may wait until the third week of April. But unless a miracle happens, unless a good deal is reached for both sides, then the operation and ground conflict are inevitable.
In that case, US-Israeli troops can enter/exit through several points in Iran. Iran’s geography is very unfriendly and diverse, which makes it very difficult for any foreign force to conduct a ground operation. Coastal islands may be much more effective for the US forces to capture Iran’s strategic islands than to land directly on the mainland. Kharg Island is in the northeastern part of the Persian Gulf and 90% of Iran’s crude oil is exported from here. If it is captured or blocked, the Iranian economy will be crippled. Qeshm and Kish Islands are controlled near the Strait of Hormuz, it will be easier to secure shipping in the Persian Gulf. Abu Musa and Tunb Islands are important in controlling the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz.
Some specific areas can be chosen to enter the Iranian mainland. Khuzestan province is a flat region and contains Iran’s oil reserves. It is easy to enter this region, close to the Iraqi border, because the terrain here is part of the Mesopotamian plain. This region was a major battlefield in the 1940s, and during the Iran-Iraq War 1980s. Chabahar deep-sea port on the Gulf of Oman could be an important bridgehead or gateway. It is possible to enter through Sistan-Baluchistan province from here. Bandar Abbas is Iran’s main naval base and an important commercial port. Capturing this city could be essential for US forces to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
Even if US forces enter Iran, the biggest obstacle they will face will be the Zagros Mountains. This vast mountain range stretches from northwest to southeast. It separates the Persian Plateau from Iraq and the Persian Gulf. The peaks and narrow passes, rising more than 4,000 metres, can slow down any modern army. Iran can resist this with asymmetric warfare and hidden missile batteries. Another is Lut and Kabir Deserts located inside Iran. The extreme heat and dust storms make it almost impossible to operate large military forces in this area. According to some military analysts, US forces may try to enter the northwest through the Kurdistan or Azerbaijani border. In particular, light commando forces or airborne divisions (such as the 82nd Airborne) could directly strike important nuclear or military installations using Mosul in northern Iraq or Incirlik airbase in Turkey.
However, even if it is a ground operation, the US strategy will be to achieve something tangible. Therefore, rather than a full-scale ground invasion, the current strategy of US forces may be to seize islands, stop oil exports, and destroy important military capabilities through limited commando attacks. This is because Iran’s mountainous terrain and large population make a prolonged ground war too risky for any foreign power.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author
The writer is a journalist and columnist
