Oil prices fell on Wednesday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that supply growth is beginning to outpace demand, while traders awaited a closely watched meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin later this week.
The IEA raised its 2025 supply growth forecast to 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from 2.1 million bpd, citing increased output from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers. At the same time, it trimmed its global demand outlook to 680,000 bpd from 700,000 bpd, signalling a potential market glut, reports AP.
Adding to the pressure, the American Petroleum Institute reported a 1.52 million-barrel build in US crude stocks for the week ending August 8, against expectations for a slight draw. Gasoline inventories slipped modestly, while distillate stocks edged higher. Government data from the Energy Information Administration, due later on Wednesday, is expected to show a smaller 300,000-barrel decline in crude.
Markets are also watching Friday’s summit in Alaska, where Trump and Putin are set to meet amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. While hopes for a ceasefire remain slim, any move toward easing US sanctions on Russian energy could shift market dynamics. The White House has played down expectations for an immediate breakthrough.
In mid-afternoon trade, Brent crude hovered at $66.12 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was at $63.11.
OPEC’s latest monthly report offered a more upbeat view for 2026, forecasting demand growth of 1.38 million bpd, 100,000 bpd higher than previously estimated, alongside a reduced outlook for non-OPEC+ supply growth. This, the group suggested, could help rebalance the market over the longer term.