Collections by the National Board of Revenue (NBR) rose 12.9 per cent year-on-year in the first seven months of fiscal 2025-26, driven by strong growth in VAT and income tax.
According to provisional data of the NBR, the tax authority collected Tk223,638 crore in July-January of FY26, up from Tk198,091 crore in the same period a year earlier.
However, against a revised target of Tk283,751 crore for the seven-month period, the actual collection left a shortfall of about Tk60,113 crore, indicating a substantial revenue deficit.
Dr Zahid Hussain, former lead economist of the World Bank’s Dhaka office, said the overall growth in revenue is encouraging but the widening deficit against the target signals structural weaknesses in tax mobilisation.
“Double-digit growth in VAT and income tax indicates improved domestic compliance and some recovery in economic activities. However, the more than Tk60,000 crore shortfall suggests that the target was overly ambitious given the ongoing import compression and sluggish private investment,” he said.
He added that customs revenue is likely to remain under pressure as import demand has not fully rebounded due to cautious monetary policy and exchange rate adjustments.
“To bridge the gap, the focus should be on expanding the tax base, reducing exemptions and strengthening enforcement through automation rather than relying on higher rates,” he said, adding that continued revenue underperformance could constrain public spending and widen fiscal stress in the months ahead.
Of the total receipts, VAT accounted for Tk85,769 crore, marking a 16.45 per cent increase year-on-year. Income tax collection also registered a robust 13.29 per cent growth to Tk75,055 crore during the period.
Customs revenue, however, grew at a slower pace. The NBR collected Tk62,814 crore from customs duties in the first seven months, posting a 7.96 per cent rise compared to the corresponding period of FY25.
Despite the cumulative growth, January’s performance was relatively subdued. The NBR collected Tk37,033 crore in January 2026, up 3.21 per cent from Tk 35,882 crore in January 2025.
In January alone, VAT collection increased 7.25 per cent year-on-year to Tk15,277 crore, while income tax rose 7.18 per cent to Tk13,175 crore. Customs revenue, however, edged up by just 1.19 per cent to Tk8,581 crore.
Data also showed that some import-stage duties declined in January, reflecting lower collection under certain heads, even as domestic VAT maintained steady growth.
The overall revenue performance indicates resilience in domestic tax mobilisation, particularly from VAT and income tax, amid ongoing economic adjustments and import compression measures.
