Islami Andolan Bangladesh’s exit from a Jamaat-led seat-sharing alliance ahead of the 12 February parliamentary election could give the BNP-led bloc a relative advantage on the electoral field, political analysts say.
At the same time, they argue that Islami Andolan itself is likely to suffer losses rather than gains by contesting alone.
The assessment follows Islami Andolan’s decision on Friday to leave the 11-party alliance and contest independently in 268 constituencies, a move that has reignited debate over vote distribution and ground-level political dynamics.
At a press conference, the party said the decision was not based solely on disagreements over seat allocation, but also on what it described as the alliance’s departure from its founding principles, blaming Jamaat for straying from its stated objectives.
Analysts say Islami Andolan has a limited but identifiable support base across the country. By choosing to run on its own, those votes are no longer expected to transfer to candidates backed by the Jamaat-led alliance, a shift that could benefit BNP-nominated contenders in many seats.
Even a small transfer of votes could have made a decisive difference for the Jamaat-led alliance, said Professor Dilara Choudhury, a political analyst and former head of the Department of Government and Politics at Jahangirnagar University.
“If a Jamaat alliance candidate had received even around 5,000 votes from Islami Andolan supporters, that could have been enough to secure victory in some seats,” she said. “On the surface, Islami Andolan’s decision to run alone means BNP candidates will gain a marginal advantage in many constituencies.”
Professor Choudhury was also critical of Islami Andolan’s political positioning. She said the party appeared to lack a clear understanding of governance and state administration, making sustained cooperation with Jamaat difficult.
“As for Islami Andolan’s own prospects, there is virtually no chance— not even one per cent— that the party will benefit electorally by contesting alone.”
Earlier reports of a possible seat-sharing arrangement involving Jamaat, Islami Andolan led by Charmonai Pir Syed Muhammad Rezaul Karim, and Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis led by Mamunul Haque, along with several other parties, had initially created a sense of reassurance among their activists and supporters.
That momentum appeared to strengthen further when National Citizen Party, Liberal Democratic Party led by Colonel (retd) Oli Ahmed, and Amar Bangladesh Party joined the broader alliance, generating increased interest among sections of the electorate.
With Awami League absent from the electoral race, expectations around the alliance had risen not only among party leaders but also among parts of the public. Campaigning under the banner of establishing “good governance”, the initial eight-party bloc appeared to gain traction in several parts of the country.
However, analysts say the departure of Islami Andolan has since dampened that momentum, weakening perceptions of unity within the opposition camp.
Leaders of the remaining ten parties in the Jamaat-led alliance, however, have offered a different reading of the situation, insisting that the bloc remains electorally viable despite the setback.
A senior leader of Jamaat-e-Islami said the departure of Islami Andolan from the alliance would not have a significant electoral impact, though it had caused some unease within the bloc.
“Islami Andolan leaving the alliance will not affect us much,” the Jamaat assistant secretary-general said. “But it has created a certain level of discomfort.”
Rashed Pradhan, vice-president and spokesperson of National Democratic Party, which is part of the alliance, said the split had harmed both sides to some extent.
“The erosion of unity within the alliance has caused some damage to both sides,” he said. “However, I remain hopeful that patriotic and faithful voters will make the right choice.”
Why Islami Andolan left the alliance?
Islami Andolan announced its decision to quit the Jamaat-led alliance and contest the election independently at a press conference held on Friday afternoon at its central office in Paltan, Dhaka.
The announcement was made by the party’s senior joint secretary-general and spokesperson, Gazi Ataur Rahman.
He said the decision was not taken solely over disagreements about seat allocation. Instead, he alleged that the alliance had deviated from the principles on which it was formed, blaming Jamaat-e-Islami, the largest party in the bloc, for straying from its stated objectives.
“First, Islami Andolan was not given due respect within the alliance,” he said. “There were also statements made that go against Sharia law.”
He further alleged that Jamaat had unilaterally brought three parties, including National Citizen Party, into the alliance without consulting other partners.
Gazi Ataur Rahman also described as a violation of alliance principles a reported meeting between BNP acting chairman Tarique Rahman and Jamaat amir Shafiqur Rahman to discuss the formation of a national government.
Later in the evening, Jamaat-e-Islami rejected the allegations. Ahsanul Mahboob Zubair, assistant secretary-general of Jamaat and head of its media wing, described Islami Andolan’s claims as baseless.
Transformation of the ‘Islamic bloc’
Following the fall of the Awami League government on 5 August last year, Islami Andolan Bangladesh began reaching out to like-minded parties with a proposal centred on establishing an Islamic system of governance under a “single symbol” voting strategy.
Several parties, including Jamaat-e-Islami, later joined the initiative. Over time, the talks evolved into an eight-party electoral seat-sharing arrangement.
The initial bloc included Jamaat-e-Islami, Islami Andolan Bangladesh, Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis, Nezame Islam Party, Khelafat Majlis, Bangladesh Khelafat Andolan, National Democratic Party, and Bangladesh Development Party.
After jointly organising a series of programmes, the parties began working towards a formal seat-sharing deal even before the election schedule was announced.
On 28 December, three more parties joined the alliance: Liberal Democratic Party, National Citizen Party and Amar Bangladesh Party, expanding the bloc to 11 parties.
However, according to sources, the late inclusion of these three parties, particularly National Citizen Party, triggered concerns within Islami Andolan over its chances of securing preferred constituencies. Analysts say this marked the beginning of growing distance between Islami Andolan and Jamaat.
At the same time, Jamaat reportedly began viewing Islami Andolan with suspicion, amid fears that the party could withdraw from the alliance at the last moment. To hedge against that possibility, Jamaat pushed to bring in the three additional parties, a move that Islami Andolan did not take well.
After several rounds of meetings in recent days, seat-sharing among 10 of the 11 parties was finalised. The arrangement was announced at a joint press conference on Thursday night on behalf of the 11-party bloc.
Leaders from the 10 parties were present at the briefing, but no representative from Islami Andolan attended. Despite its absence, 47 constituencies were kept unallocated for the party at that stage.
