Global cotton stocks are forecast to fall to their lowest level in 15 years in 2026–27 as production trails consumption by about 5.3 million bales, raising the prospect of firmer prices in the months ahead.
The US Department of Agriculture’s November forecasts put world consumption at 122.75 million bales against production of 117.48 million, with ending stocks projected to decline from 75.64 million to 70.57 million bales.
Unless global harvest estimates rise sharply, the supply gap could support prices.
Bangladesh, one of the world’s two largest cotton importers alongside Vietnam, is struggling with weaker demand as energy shortages disrupt spinning mills.
Its cotton consumption is forecast at 7.4 million bales and imports at 7.2 million, both revised down in November.
Consumption is unchanged from last year and below the 8.2 million bales recorded in 2024–25.
Mohiuddin Rubel, founder and CEO of Bangladesh Apparel Voice, attributed the weakness to falling domestic gas production, disrupted LNG imports from the Middle East and a fire at an LNG terminal.
During the gas crisis, some mills operated below 30 per cent capacity, while others suspended production.
Although supplies have since improved, they remain below demand and vulnerable to terminal outages, as the maintenance shutdown from 4 to 7 November demonstrated.
The government’s decision to replace duty-free bonded imports of 10–30 count yarn with a bank-guarantee system was intended to redirect demand towards domestic spinners.
But Rubel said mills unable to operate reliably could not take up that demand, while garment exporters faced higher input costs.
“Until mills can count on steady supply, policy support for spinning will do little for cotton demand,” he said.
Bangladesh’s ending cotton stocks are projected at 1.62 million bales, equivalent to about 22 per cent of annual consumption, broadly unchanged from last year as importers have reduced purchases in line with lower mill use.
Vietnam, meanwhile, is forecast to import and consume 8.3 million bales, up from 8.15 million last season and 8 million in 2024–25.
Its ending stocks are projected at 1.03 million bales, roughly 12 per cent of annual consumption, reflecting a leaner inventory model that Rubel suggested may benefit from efficient ports and logistics.
The contrasting figures show Vietnam’s cotton consumption rising steadily while Bangladesh’s remains flat.
