By Special Correspondent, Dhaka-
The recent confirmation from Myanmar that 180,000 Rohingya refugees have been verified for return to Rakhine State, with an additional 70,000 under review, may appear to be promising news.
However, this development falls short of addressing the deeper issues at the core of the Rohingya crisis. Verification alone does not ensure a repatriation process that is safe, dignified, or voluntary.
Myanmar, a Buddhist-majority country, took nearly seven years to complete this partial verification — an unnecessarily prolonged and intentional process that began in 2018, a year after the mass exodus of Rohingya Muslims to Bangladesh.
Over a million Rohingya living in squalid camps in Bangladesh remain in limbo, surviving solely on humanitarian aid from international donors, primarily Western countries.
Bangladesh should have legitimate concerns about Myanmar’s commitment to the repatriation process.
The delays and lack of transparency reflect the ruling junta’s unwillingness to fully engage in a sincere resolution. With 550,000 Rohingyas who arrived after 2017 still pending verification, questions arise: Who will oversee their verification? Will they ever be acknowledged as rightful citizens of Myanmar? Or will they be permanently absorbed into Bangladesh—a situation Dhaka always opposes? And what would happen to nearly 500,000 others who arrived before 2017?
These questions demand answers, and Bangladesh must maintain consistent diplomatic engagement with Myanmar. The country must insist on a clear plan for not only the recently verified individuals but also the hundreds of thousands of Rohingyas who fled even before 2017.
As Touhidul Islam, an Associate Professor of Peace and Conflict Studies at Dhaka University, says, “The issue of the remaining unverified Rohingyas must be settled before any repatriation attempt is made.” He emphasized the importance of creating a safe and sustainable environment in Rakhine, so that returnees do not fall into another cycle of persecution.
Myanmar’s apparent progress in verification does not indicate genuine political will to reintegrate the Rohingya. Rakhine State, their place of origin, remains highly unstable. Myanmar is currently mired in a nationwide civil war, with dozens of armed insurgent groups fighting the military regime that seized power in 2021.
In Rakhine specifically, more than 90% of the territory is now under the control of the Arakan Army (AA)—a powerful ethnic Rakhine insurgent group engaged in intense conflict with the military.
Though the AA claims to support a multi-ethnic Rakhine state, its stance on the Rohingya remains ambiguous. No legal or political framework has been outlined to welcome Rohingya as equal citizens, and historical tensions between the two communities remain unresolved.
With the Myanmar military rapidly losing territorial control, it is unclear who — if anyone — will guarantee the safety, rights, and civil protections of returning Rohingya, if happens.
Even if the security situation were to improve, the Rohingya face significant legal hurdles.
Myanmar continues to deny them citizenship under the so-called 1982 Citizenship Law, which effectively rendered them stateless. No meaningful reforms have been undertaken to restore their rights or address their decades-long exclusion. Returnees would likely face internal displacement or confinement in camps — conditions still endured by tens of thousands of Rohingya within Myanmar today.
Political analyst Lailufar Yasmin acknowledges the limitations but believes the repatriation process must begin at some point. “We have seen several waves of Rohingya return in the past. The government should cautiously move forward, ensuring the process does not repeat past mistakes,” said Yasmin, a professor of International Relations at Dhaka University.
Many Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh have voiced deep reluctance to return without guaranteed citizenship, protection, and justice. Ongoing violence, recent airstrikes, and widespread insecurity make any repatriation under current conditions a potential case of refoulement — a violation of international humanitarian law.
Repatriation must adhere to three essential principles: safety, voluntariness, and dignity. At present, there is no indication that Myanmar meets any of these standards. The recent earthquake, which struck an already war-torn nation, has further destabilized the situation.
While Bangladesh continues to face immense socio-economic pressure to resolve the crisis, any forced or hasty return risks retraumatizing an already vulnerable population and could reignite ethnic tensions in Rakhine.
The international community must remain actively engaged in supporting Bangladesh’s humanitarian efforts while pressing Myanmar for a comprehensive political resolution to the ongoing civil conflict, recognition of Rohingya and their fundamental rights, an inclusive peace process that involves all ethnic groups, including the Rohingya and a secure Rakhine that enables a voluntary and dignified return, analysts say.